pretty much the best crop in the US is along that corridor. all the rain has punched that section all year.
that said, get up on a grainleg or in the air............MO will have a good year, but its got holes that is going to pull it down from a record..........there is a section in NCMO that punches south that missed a fair bit of this summer rain, and was firing hard a month ago............and some areas have had too much rain, ie my backyard, 14-16 inches in June is never good, luckily we had 8 plus in July and around 4-5 so far in August which has kept things going from the early damage...........we will have 100 bushel swings in fields in my backyard...........those inconsistancies and holes do not make for a killer crop.............and lets face it, MO is on the bottom of the corn list, so our crop barely moves the needle anyway......
IL has a good crop coming in areas...........but the cream is off the top..............I think people forget how hard it is to keep that yield monitor above 220...........and NIL had a monster crop the last few years, they will not this year, SIL also brought it home late last year and this year will be good but not great..........so all in all, IL is no better than last year.........and the USDA number that is being used would suggest a monster, so IMO IL is overstated...........
IA is mosiac of issues..........SW to NE goes from good to bad.........storm damage too........some areas too much water, others not enough..........I think the thing many are overlooking...........in 2013 the crop went in after the damage was done with the crazy spring rains and some of that ground that did get planted late was able to raise a pretty darn good crop because of a nice fall...........in 2014 many of the areas where planted and then the rain and storm damage came...........just too many holes and inconsistancy..........so IMO IA is WAY overstated..........
IN, dont have a good handle, other than its probably going to come up short, same with OH.........so IMO they are probably overstated........
NE...........too much storm damage, dry pockets, and believe it or not, not enough heat..........they will have a decent crop but no bin buster.........
KS has a pocket of good and a big slug of stuff that went south a month ago...........I was suprised to see corn being chopped 2 weeks ago and a lot of corn that was burnt up and done...........again, KS is a drop in the bucket, but no record there.......
MN, a mess and is on frost watch...........IMO its WAY overstated.......
Dakotas, dont have a good handle, but would say similar to MN to some degree.......
AND SOMETHING NOT TALKED ABOUT MUCH, BUT.................most people dont understand that corn that is behind will try and "HURRY UP" to finish.........this bascially short changes and shortens up the grain fill period.........usually from around R4-R6..........thats why late corn can have horrible test weight and shallow kernal depth...........cool temps at night and warm temps during the day is one thing...........HOWEVER most people dont understand cool temps at night and during the day can be just as troublesome as too much heat.............
TAKE HOME POINT
Records are not born from inconsistancy..........too much rain early..........not enough heat units late...........AND PEOPLE HAVE TO GET THIS THRU THEIR HEAD...............we dont have to kill this crop to still make carryout come in tight..........its going to be a nice crop, just not record............and our balance sheets and expectations for the last few years has been perfection and records.........with our usage we should be paying $5 for corn with a 2B carryout............instead of $3 with a 1B carryout.......
and that is why I pretty much despise these "market gurus"..............
