Marketeye...........

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I think you just got the answer to your question about soybeans being planted right now..............

Harvest them in late Sept and pick up a near or over 14 bid on 70 bushel beans with $200 or more reduction in input cost..............

Is it safe to say its different this time????????????..............

[Doug N]

The national average is closer to 40 BPA than 70 so your math only works in parts of the corn belt.  On the open in my area the spread widened to about 2.65 including basis.  This corn acreage number will only get smaller as we get closer to the June report but I'd guess at most we lose 1 million acres which would mostly go to beans.  I think what is encouraging that even though all the negative export and slowing ethanol crush reports that VR reminds us about daily, is that stocks came in lower than most expected. 

[Mizzou_Tiger]

do you use nat avg when you figure your ROI..............or do you use what you think a certain piece of ground would push.........

I am betting those early soya acres are on ground that has a much higher risk reaching 200 plus corn versus 70 soya..........and realistically 60 is probably a wash, thus less risk with same or better reward.........no brainer..........

[Doug N]

My point is way more people grow 30-40 bpa beans than 60-70 or the national average would be at least in the mid 50's.  I use what my history on a field is .  Where I farm in Western MN we are way more likely to have 40 BPA beans than 60 BPA.  We are also in an area that can easily grow 160-180 BPA corn.  As a matter of fact, I bet that most guys here have had corn fields average over 200 BPA but very few have had fields average 60 BPA.  It takes some pretty high priced soybeans to equal the profit margin that we see in corn. 

[Hobbyfarmer]

Doug N ; there is another little point nobody brings up is the wear and tear on equipment on beans vs corn ... 1000 acres of beans does way more damage (wear) on combines and augering equip than 2500 acres of corn does.

[Doug N]

Hobby,

To be honest with you that is a non-factor in my decision making.  Combines wear no matter what goes through them. 

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

I think you are right. It still seems like quite the gamble to plant soybeans right now. But, the farmers doing it are clearly rolling the dice.

Mike

[NDf]

Hobby If you want to reduce damage from beans on your combine try a land roller. Benefits include less dirt thu the combine. rocks pushed in the ground, and increased harvest speeds because of smoth ground, The only disadvantages are of course another trip and if your soil type is conducive to blowing.

[Nebrfarmr]

Last year, at my brother's place, they planted corn and beans side by side within a day of each other, in the last week in April.

The beans made within a BPA of 70, and the corn made right under 190 all the way through, and the beans took 2 less cycles of the pivot to do it (burning diesel).

With these current prices, I bet I know of a field or two, that is going to be heavy on beans, especially since they were 2/3 corn last year.  My guess is quite a few fields in my area that were 2/3 corn will be half & half, or possibly even 2/3 beans, if beans stay this high compared to corn.

Now, other places that raise 200 bu corn, and 40 bu beans, probably not so much.