are you a believer of my numbers and method to madness yet...........acres are dieing by the day.........corn is probably 1M overstated, maybe more depending on weather.............soya could be overstated by 2M............wheat is in trouble shape and will not be "torn out" and planted to anything since it sounds like things are a dust bowl right now.......
My thoughts are to be selling 2010 corn into this rally (yes there is some still out there, not a lot though) and watch soya...........also be looking into 2011 and maybe 2012.............as I feel we could be in for some intervention from the government......
IMO we are in a bind...........personally the corn crop will be 91M planted at 156 nat avg at best..........get your calculator out and something has to give..............wheat goes to the hand basket and we are already set up for acreage battle 2012 before 2011 is in the ground..........soya might get some production, but 74M planted takes a big NA and SA crop to make ends meet...........
All this makes we wonder whats coming down the pipe for grains...........IMO the government is enjoy high dollar grain exports propping our trade deficit up.........and ethanol is a nice card to play against oil...........but at some point things get stretched too far........and you don't wanna be late to the party.......
What are you hearing........
Just my 2 ¢ but, what is exactly meant by gov`t intervention? I wouldn`t put anything past this Administration, but that`s better left to the forum page . Behind the scenes cooler heads usally prevail with a hands off policy. Oh, they tweek the reports in their chosen direction, the truth always comes out in the pudding. If feed gets too high priced in July, you`ll see piggy gilts going to market, if oil would go to $50, ethanol plants would take a couple months off for "maintenance", there`s alot of wiggle room at the market. In 2012 a "early out" on the CRP could be announced. I think always best to let market do it`s job, a intervention would create more problems than it solves. High priced corn is insuring that we will do the best job possible on the maximum acres.
Here's what I'm hearing:
--Brazil & Argentina will harvest 115-120 million metric tons of soybeans in the next month. If prices stay at $10 or more, those same farmers will come back and plant even more in Sept.-Oct.
--If the U.S. planting season is normal, corn will be put in the ground at an amount and rate never seen before. Because of price, it seems like the farmer wants to plant corn. If you plant a lot of soybeans, you're betting on the 'come', so to speak.
--The President's Administration wants to support ethanol. Ethanol exports are seen going higher this year, according to industry officials. Last time I checked, there was still no replacement for corn to make ethanol. This adds up to more corn usage.
--U.S. ag industry folks, returning from China, say that country needs a lot more corn and soybeans than they are leading on.
--Just Wednesday morning, it's being reported that due to a sharp drop in rapeseed acres, Chinese millers and crushers will look to fill that gap with soymeal and soyoil. Also, JP Morgan Bank experts see Chinese soybean import demand up 20% on year in 2011.
--Notice that I've mentioned a lot of demand items and very few supply points. And we didn't even get in to the poor U.S. and European wheat crops and the world's needed-cotton supply.
So, it does seem a battle for acres is reasonable for 2012. I had a farmer say to me that he just doesn'ty know whether to plant more corn or soybeans this year. I said, if you grow it, the market will need it sometime this year, you can count on that.