December 2019 futures trading at $4.02......wait a little for the $4.25 bid.
HTA your insured bushels......If it is a big crop again, roll the Dec 2019 to July 2020 for a 35 cent gain.
$4.25 plus the .35 equals $4.60......set the basis at .40 under for southern MN, Northern IA.....$4.20 less five cents in HTA and roll fees....net price for your bushels $4.15.
If it is a short crop, like this year, and the carry doesn't materialize, bite the bullet and roll for a twenty five cent gain. My hedging this year netted an average June/July 2019 net price of $3.91 since we only had a twenty six cent carry to work with. Doesn't buy steak, but does keep us well fed with hamburger even with the short crops we are experiencing.
Same for Soybeans, but target $10.25 November futures or so when the opportunity presents itself. The carry on soybeans is not always there so you may end up setting the basis for fall delivery and getting money for cash flow.
Not trying to be smart about it, but this is a pretty basic strategy, and one that has kept me in business for the last few years of lower prices and tight margins.
Maybe this is the year that corn sky rockets and $4 corn looks as bad as all the $3 corn I delivered back when the ethanol boom first took off and I had several years hedged. Now I just go one year at a time after I know my expenses. And I always keep some bushels unpriced for the run up when and if it finally occurs again.
