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Advisor

Marketing -101

This was going to be a big year...was going to sweep out the bins with $4 plus corn, $10 soybeans...payoff bills and loans, and if you go back to the first couple weeks of January, everything was on right on target....Cash soybeans were $9.37 and rising, corn was at $3.87 and rising...what could go wrong, right? And then the black corona swan hits at the same time as Russia and Saudi Arabia get into a p-ing contest on oil prices, and now ..here we are....local ethanol plant quit buying...corn basis is back to highs....really depressing.

At this point, my plan is to tighten things up so hard I strip the threads on my budget, sell beans for $8.75....grow a huge crop and seal it this fall...and hope and pray for things to settle out by next year. Glad I have a lot of storage. Looks a lot like the 1980's....

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15 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Marketing -101

I'm getting too old for this, enthusiasm level is lower than it's been in 20 some years.

Did some marketing first of year.

Not much but some.

Cored a corn bin two weeks ago.

+36 cents ago.

 If i raise an average crop I'm in storage trouble.

I've got two 12,000bu bins in a disassembled state.

Not excited about putting them back together. Just the concrete and new air floors and fans arent cheap.

Will be easier and cheaper to sell the old crop in the bins right now then put up more storage and do the hope for better prices down the road with even more inventory...

Maybe change crop mix and go with more beans...takes less bin space?

Decisions  decisions decisions...

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketing -101

Speaking of Marketing 101

Theres a line of thinking that says you should treat your grain bins like a separate enterprise-

basically like an elevator that makes its money on basis, blending, drying and carrying.

Not exciting but a solid ROI

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Advisor

Re: Marketing -101

I hear you...I have 30,000 bushels of bins that need attention, too, and wonder if its worth the effort. Hoping to sell soybeans off the combine and hang on to corn for both years, waiting for cost of production pricing opportunities.

My acres that were going to be corn on corn will probably be soybeans now, too. Eventually the cutback in corn acres should help.

Also looking hard at the new 3 yr CRP grass program. My government outgo right now between income taxes, sales taxes, licenses, fuel taxes, property taxes etc is pretty high right now and I need some more government ingo.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Marketing -101

Mine is treated more like a bank and tax planning service. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Marketing -101

I treat mine like a savings account or my own personal stock market.   Why should I invest in the real stock market and lose money there when I can lose money all by myself with corn in the bin?   Grrrrrrr..........

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Senior Advisor

Re:Bins, I'm right behind you..

A few years ago I bought a bin, took it down, hauled it home and put it in the shed.  Haven't gotten too excited about putting it up the past couple-three years but the way things are going, this might be the year.  I hate the idea of the sunk cost of the concrete slab at my age but what are you going to do?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Bins, I'm right behind you..

Doesn't have to be but there's probably a bit of difference between the guy with a couple 20Kers and an auger and some of these massive on farm set ups. A friend of mine says there are 20 in the county bigger than the co-op elevator he managed when he got out of college.

There are, of course, the Real Deal types who usually manage well or if they don't they're well enough heeled it doesn't matter. But I've always thought that for some they'd turn out to be death traps- hopefully not literally, or at all.

But you don't want to own a casino that is bigger than the bank.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Bins, I'm right behind you..

And there is a high roller who has hit the casino pretty hard the last year or so.

Can't help but remind me of the story of how one of the times when our POTUS had a casino floundering 'Ol Fred sent some of his guys in to buy $M's in chips and bury them, in order to give him a temporary bailout.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Bins, I'm right behind you..

Sure a lot of farm sales of nice machinery this next ten days. Nothing much all winter and now this.

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