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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

The sad part is that everyone gets the joke.

 

Have also noticed that grain marketing advice is kind of the opposite of investment advice:

 

Markets are up, time to buy

 

Markets are down, time to buy

 

Etc.

 

Always time to buy, otherwise hold

 

If they say sell, you're already screwed!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

the talking heads are selling stories which will grab the idiots attn - me incl, sometimes, not what will be profitable to you/us.

 

i distinctly remember CNBC back in 1999-2000 - BUY-BUY-BUY THE NASDAQ...... NEWS IS ALWAYS MOST BULLISH AT THE TOP.

 

i know a couple people who worked for ENRON.....buy-buy your companies stock-it's making you a fortune that will only become bigger. one of my dad's patients had just retired from that corrupt company ---comfortably -on paper- 7 figs--ended up having to go back to work.........those employees were so brainwashedSmiley Sad

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

CX..........

 

5.0--5.5 corn stocks on March 1, 2014 ??

 

I guess that goes along with your 137 bpa corn yield projection for the '13 corn crop??

 

guess we are running out of corn about July 4 this year

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

ray,

 

i'm learning it's all theoritically statistically academic anyway -- reality is a different thing.  NO one will ever know what the ACTUAL yield is on any year.

 

so yes, it also goes well with a record 180 yield and $8.00 bu corn -- wouldn't that be a spectacle?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

ray,

 

do you really think US had 8 hundred something million bu left of 2012 corn on Sep1 ...or was it ACTUALLY more like minus 1 billion bu? made up by the difference from 13 crop.

 

they just got to make the balance sheet LOOK balanced...............b/c it's the story that sells the best......

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

just like they harvested almost 88 mil ac last fall...............the PP acres just never happened b/c they said so...................does not really matter what's going on--on the ground---which is where you are, so you know better than i what's really going on...........i'm not unclear on that fact whatsoever.

 

i also know we all gotta keep business close to the vest, too..................................

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Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

how do i print this??? good one wcmo!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

cx....no doubt the usda struggles with handling the old/new transition in late august, especially in the very tight years, and years where harvest starts very early (2012 the leading example of that).......that said, yes, I do beliveve there was 800+ myn corn in the pipeline on Sept 1, 2013.........this last year's transition was nothing like we saw in the 1995/1996 year, when it was much much worse.....why do I say this??  First, we spotted large amounts of  old corn this year in August and September....to the tune of 1+ myn in August alone and if the pipe was as thin as some suggest, the spot biz would have been 10-15% of that at the most, and there wouild have been zilch for FH Sept spots........what was different this time?? back in '96, corn had gone to $5 in July for the very first time, and folks were eager to sell whatever they had as quick as they could....$7-8 is something we have seen several times since 2008, so there was not the shock factor......and in fact we had folks who held on to large quantites of corn and did not sell it.....one of those fellas passed on selling 100,000 for $7 and is now spotting in a few loads each day at $4.98

 

Now, as far as your assertion that the stocks are off a minimum of 1.5 byn bushels......there is a thought process out there that the usda is wrong, way wrong.....and they say it every year......now, if there is validity in that argument, then we MUST run out of corn in early June some year.....not just get to carryout levels....run OUT of corn, collapse the pipeline, and start seeing mass liquidations  of animals for lack of corn to feed them.....

 

I suppose this could be THAT year, but I am not holding my breath.....

 

Ray J

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

ray,

 

appreciate your perspective and comparison to '96 - that makes sense...i'm learning it's not my job to try and figure exact stocksSmiley Happy

 

was mostly thinking about what Hobby had said about how could there be 7 bil left?.....and reeled that out.....all i do know from charts and market rxn to report --it has some underlying strength to it. why??? i have fun speculating on the reasons - but don't need to know.

 

one has to admit the # had the smell of "NEEDING" to stay above 7 bil by a few bu for some such reason.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketing Advice

It doesn't matter whether we have 6 billion or 7 billion left. What matters is if we have enough with ending stocks and imports. They tell me those big boats can go both ways. How many of us have suffered low basis levels while other areas have limited supplies. All it takes is price to move it to where it is needed.

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