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Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,485
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Marketing Plan

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,856
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Marketing Plan

profoundly true...

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,550
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Marketing Plan

Face?   Many have been punched below the belt.   Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,856
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Marketing Plan

Ya. Production profitability(or the dream of it), this forum and marketing ?(plans). Are in an out-of-control tailspin
And our pilots (including admistrators) have the stick locked one position.

It’s time for new thinking and new action, but that would be off topic or leaving the “traditions of the elders”.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,485
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Marketing Plan

One guru`s plan was, of course know your cost of production the group consensus was breakeven $3.25 cash (so subtract your local basis from Dec corn) okay then sell 20% when you can get $3.50 cash and another 20% at $3.65 cash, utilizing crop insurance protection.  There are a lot of additional issues like, will some of us be offered $3.50 cash? If we get to July and the best you could`ve done at that point was $3.55 cash and the offer was a day or two, do you dump your APH at anything above $3.50 if your corn looks good?   Or figure holding after harvest with options strategy?  

 

Also, I have a feeling the gals at the coop will be busy writing contracts anywhere near $3.50 cash.  Perhaps $3.40 cash you dump 30% APH?  To beat the rush. 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,248
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Marketing Plan

marketing plan ???????????????

 

what's a marketing plan ??????????

 

I just try to sell when I make some money

 

am I doing something wrong ?????????

 

Advisor
Posts: 10,487
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
0

Re: Marketing Plan

I'll try to buy some OTM courage calls either in the typical winter seasonal low period or if there's any kind of confirmation of a bottom before.

 

Odds favor some sort of a seasonal rally later but I'd use the calls to sell against.

 

A crop reduction of a magnitude to move into the upper half of the decade's range is a 1 in 10 shot, or worse.

 

Harder to handicap the likelihood of some event(s) that turn the funds around and create a good selling opportunity.

 

Most years have one, last year didn't. In '16 all it took was a little hot dry weather and some weather gurus hollerin' drought.

 

Problem is that farmers are the people most likely to believe that BS, which is why the calls.

Advisor
Posts: 10,487
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
0

Re: Marketing Plan

As far as believing the BS, we have people here who still believe it 2 months after it starts raining cats.