I'll try to buy some OTM courage calls either in the typical winter seasonal low period or if there's any kind of confirmation of a bottom before.
Odds favor some sort of a seasonal rally later but I'd use the calls to sell against.
A crop reduction of a magnitude to move into the upper half of the decade's range is a 1 in 10 shot, or worse.
Harder to handicap the likelihood of some event(s) that turn the funds around and create a good selling opportunity.
Most years have one, last year didn't. In '16 all it took was a little hot dry weather and some weather gurus hollerin' drought.
Problem is that farmers are the people most likely to believe that BS, which is why the calls.
