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Honored Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

Hobby that last chart is pretty telling........  Those grain prices through the last drought did absolutely nothing for producers,,,  Looks like it was just a pass through to the farm suppliers...

 

I don't feel real sorry for Deere, Dow, Koch, Seed molestors... or grain elevators ... they have had an easy few years...

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Honored Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

The bar chart of incomes is a quick mental study on why...........................

and I can answer it with a word i have used often and I usually got a quick "that's not true" reaction from the folks that can't see the end of their nose without a government report.   Inflation has been extreme.......

 

Those prices went straight into increased input costs..... just glance back to the 2008 tax box in the back corner of the shed.  look at prices and compare to 2015 or 2016..... That is what makes that bar chart fall so fast.  and what dries up WC loans and causes you to not be able to cash flow a profit........ no matter who provides the loan.  your bank or your savings account..

 

I have a 2003 cost analysis on a corn field  in front of me now............ and there was a profit on $2.52 corn.

nitrogen 14 cents a lb.

$34 per acre for seed---- and that was GMO seed

phos  23 cents / lb

harvest custom rate 13 cents per bushel

 

 

also looking back for comparisons will also give you good "Time" perspective.......  Some of these biotech inovations have been new for a long time.... Price wise that horse has been ridden pretty hard...

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

you hit the nail on the head sw about the inflation....

 

we need inflation or at least a 'cola" adjustment in the grain markets.

 

had a fellow the other day tell me that i need to get with things today...and that is how much stuff costs, i needed to

get out of the 70's and 80's....after a while i told him, i couldn't....because that is where i am with my "prices",

but you are not....

 

i told him just give me the percent increase your products are from then, that shut him up for a minute...

 

he then informed me....."you just don't understand things".....

 

hate to inform him......i do.

Honored Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

We live in a new age...... and it is extreme..... I call it...... Arrogant obsessive ignorance...  All you gotta do is watch the news this last two weeks and it becomes scary.  People think they know everything because they can do a google search....yet haven't got a clue what just happened or how to get out of the way of an of a simple scam.

Folks think technology is going to protect them and guarantee a bright future....and aren't smart enough to see they can't afford it.

 

The future is probably pretty bright for the top 5% of the wealthy in the world.  But for the rest it is going to be world with no future.

 

I guarantee you the new smart tractors are not intended to save farmers.  It is another step in replacing them.

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

What  I see is half the debt ratios of '85

 

It is on an upswing.

 

What it doesn't address is how the debt is distributed.

 

In the last go around it was probably more evenly distributed

 

This time my guess is it is distributed more heavily on the backs of the larger producers, the ones producing the majority of the bushels.

 

This time we don't have the youth to take over and retool.

 

Honored Advisor

Re: VanRe: Marketing opportunity

Hobby that last line is a mouthful...

 

I would add that we are not that far from seeing the Food Corporations bring in the robots and the cash flow.  When that happens there won't be a place to sell the surplus..  They won't need it.  And they won't need to displace very many operations to get the numbers they need.

I think that is a lot of what is wrong in the Coop elevator business... Fewer and fewer customers.  More and more bypassing the middle man...

Makes me think of the statement Ray J made the other day about how many different customers sold direct.

 

 

The technology/effeciency boom will eleminate most workers in "every" industry eventually..except the cheapest slaves...

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