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Veteran Advisor

Re: Thats a great question

Time good to hear from you!  I am not a bull for the sake of the crop I am a bull because of the dollar stuff that is going on. And the fact that I keep getting the cow pea beat outa me with the belief that someday this stuff will go down. 

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Advisor

Re: Thats a great question

You know what it usually means when everyone is a bull.  Remember the 90s stock market?  The wild card is still China of which news is sketchy and unreliable.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Thats a great question

I don't think China is a wild card, and I think the firmness of the market is broader. I'm on the verge of trying to make a post on the subject.

 

I'm repeating myself, but China is going to buy food commodities at the same or an increasing rate. The supply side of the eqaution is NOT in China's favor. I'm rethinking China's deal with Argentina.

 

I'm beginning to think the market will surprise us this next week. The only bear side that I have been hearing is the general unease with other economic issues - that are real enough. I just don't happen to think that there is going to be anything that can stem the pressure for supplying larger middle classes in the developing countries. They are growing fast and in more locations than just China. More and better food gets the highest priority after getting a decent place to live.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Thats a great question

My question is " is this a demand driven market or a spec driven market ? Are the shortages all that short or will a nervous financial market  saw the horns off of the bull..

 

I'm not convinced that the additional gains will be worth the risk, but then that is why I sold and I'm not sorry yet.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: I agree with you on this Palouser

simply alot of the globe booming now....better diets, more vehicles, more new houses etc., etc..

 

On a huge scale now of global expansion of REAL upward mobility in ALL the other countries.

 

USA agri is along for the ride as a main supplier to the afore.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Thats a great question

This is NOT a spec driven market IMO. Ending inventories justify the CASH prices. The one commodity where this is questioned is wheat. But milling wheat is tight globally. And it looks to be getting tighter with Canada's quality getting pounded and the Aussies getting a hammering as their harvest takes off.

 

The risk of S America having a problematical season justifies end users nervousness. IF S America had a poorer than average yield then tension will rise.

 

Specs can do whatever they want. They can't change the physical reality.

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