Well this should make ishmeal happy...this is on topic !!.....but we shouldn't be too hard on the fellow.....after all,
he will have to feed and raise 12 boys, and in his older age....have some rather delicate surgery
i did a bit of work on the web tonight. i have problems getting data, what i want, when i want it.
anyhow, i had the state university ag economics website did a bit of research for me. I had it pull the 1998 thru 2015 basis
and then had it averaged, and presented on chart form, for wheat, corn, milo and beans.......with that long of a peroid
we should have "smoothed out" the data so to speak....so, you can get an idea when the basis is more favorible
than others.....but first thing i noted, is this years basis is far more neg than the 98 thru 15 average.....almost
double.....that in and of itself is telling us something.....
then, doing that, i figured, there is usually a carry in the market.......so i think one thing for producers out there
is to consider when is the basis most in your favor (i think most state extension has this available).....the next thing
the data seemed to show, was that the time when the basis is in your favor, usually that is when the price is
higher on the futures.......this might be a marketing point.....or at least a time to figure a sales point for
a storage hedge.
but looking at the data, im not sure there will be a good storage hedge this marketing year on beans. unless my glasses
have a smudge, looks like beans are falling.
now we need to figure out the cost to do a storage hedge......ie bin construction cost, and "maintance", which
might be the most difficult...some management involved there, from grain temp and moisture, to bug monitoring
and maybe even treatment.
also, another thing i've learned thru the years (besides dinosars don't turn to the right as fast) when we have times of
higher basis, and usually a higher futures price, terminal or others, have been know to make very attractive transport
deals....in the past i have been offered free transport....that was a 25 cent gain over the local elevator, in and of
any other observations ?
Re: Marketing thoughts
good link WCMO thanks..
Great to see the freedom of expression in action somewhere in the world. That type of protest here will get you rushed to siberia(the announcement section).... By the great founder of Islam
like the "soup Nazi" on Seinfeld, we have our own version, gotta a good name for this one? Staying as non-objectionable as possible, while keeping with the theme, I'd go with "Talk Nazi".
Re: Marketing thoughts
Everything has went globel, on the milk, I thought
We traded milk on the cme, but maybe it does
Not apply to market conditions there (much the same that the cme does not reflect things here).
Opps, hope eu does not figure out they can export
Meat to USA....that could ruin the only bright spot.
I also thought I had seen Europe was hurting