cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

Marketing thoughts

Well this should make ishmeal happy...this is on topic !!.....but we shouldn't be too hard on the fellow.....after all,

he will have to feed and raise 12 boys, and in his older age....have some rather delicate surgery Smiley Happy

 

i did a bit of work on the web tonight. i have problems getting data, what i want, when i want it.

 

anyhow, i had the state university ag economics website did a bit of research for me. I had it pull the 1998 thru 2015 basis

and then had it averaged, and presented on chart form, for wheat, corn, milo and beans.......with that long of a peroid

we should have "smoothed out" the data so to speak....so, you can get an idea when the basis is more favorible

than others.....but first thing i noted, is this years basis is far more neg than the 98 thru 15 average.....almost

double.....that in and of itself is telling us something.....

 

then, doing that, i figured, there is usually a carry in the market.......so i think one thing for producers out there

is to consider when is the basis most in your favor (i think most state extension has this available).....the next thing

the data seemed to show, was that the time when the basis is in your favor, usually that is when the price is

higher on the futures.......this might be a marketing point.....or at least a time to figure a sales point for

a storage hedge.

 

but looking at the data, im not sure there will be a good storage hedge this marketing year on beans. unless my glasses

have a smudge, looks like beans are falling.

 

now we need to figure out the cost to do a storage hedge......ie bin construction cost, and "maintance", which

might be the most difficult...some management involved there, from grain temp and moisture, to bug monitoring

and maybe even treatment.

 

also, another thing i've learned thru the years (besides dinosars don't turn to the right as fast) when we have times of

higher basis, and usually a higher futures price, terminal or others, have been know to make very attractive transport

deals....in the past i have been offered free transport....that was a 25 cent gain over the local elevator, in and of

itself.

 

any other observations ?

 

0 Kudos
7 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing thoughts

Major protest in Brussels, farmers demanding guarantees for production.
0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing thoughts

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Marketing thoughts

good link WCMO   thanks..

 

Great to see the freedom of expression in action somewhere in the world.     That type of protest here will get you rushed to siberia(the announcement section).... By the great founder of Islam

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Talk Nazi

like the "soup Nazi" on Seinfeld, we have our own version, gotta a good name for this one?  Staying as non-objectionable as possible, while keeping with the theme, I'd go with "Talk Nazi".

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U49IjF4XyQg

 

 

 

Senior Contributor

Re: Talk Nazi

Guy I used to work with at Cargill would have called him an "azz clown"

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Talk Nazi

Talk nazi works for me....

 

And WCMO keeps me out of detention ,,,,,, well at least tries

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing thoughts

Thank you for the link wcmo. I am surprised since
Everything has went globel, on the milk, I thought
We traded milk on the cme, but maybe it does
Not apply to market conditions there (much the same that the cme does not reflect things here).
Opps, hope eu does not figure out they can export
Meat to USA....that could ruin the only bright spot.
I also thought I had seen Europe was hurting
For moisture...
0 Kudos