Markets Poised For Bullish Food Demand?

[marketeye]

According to this installment by Luis Vieira, Agriculture.com freelance writer, the U.S. farmers are positioned well to benefit from increased global food demand.

Full story: Global Food Demand Growth To Benefit U.S. Farmers

I'd be curious as to what you think.

Thanks,

Mike

[Nigel]

The article failed to recognize that India has the lowest meat consumption in the world due to the fact over 30% of the population is vegetarian.  This is cultural and not based on economics.  I don't see any change there.  

[Palouser]

I think India has more animal product potential than some figures indicate. 'Vegetarian' is a flexible term in India for many. I've seen those who consider themselves 'vegetarian' argue with plane staff over 'vegetarian' including fish, vs chicken vs no animal products at all among Indians. Dairy, especially yogurt and milk based sauces are popular. In addition, India's Muslim population is larger than any other country except Indonesia. Lamb, chicken and eggs are everywhere. Chai is universal in India and is often made with the richest water buffalo milk or regular dairy cows. Hard to find a spot where there are no chai wallas around.

I was surprised that some Hindu 'warrior classes' (nobility) exempt themselves from meat restrictions regarding lamb/goat or chicken.

Cows for meat are strictly off limits in most areas though water buffalo meat is available, even if mildly clandestinely.

I think India has more potential than its reputation suggests.

[elcheapo]

The author of the article missed one
small detail.

Yes they may be hungry, but can they
Afford it?

Typical problem with "AG journalism".
Sound "good" to AG, but don't look
At the big picture.

Oh, beef sales to India?

Most are Hindu and they are not too
Big on eating their relatives.

Mother in law steak?
How many days do you have to cook
It to make it tender?

[Hobbyfarmer]

I can't find the exact statistics 

Seems I remember soy usage has been on a near straight line up trend of 400,000 tons more every year.

Right now fish meal is in very short supply which should translate into even more soy usage.

[sw363535]

Good article, Mike & Luis,

When the standard of living goes up in the two most populus countries of the world, it does appear good for agriculture and international trade in many ways.

The question mark from the article for me is that fishmeal issue.  What does that tell us?  Are fish populations  depleted?  

Beef populations in the US have really been hammered the last several years.  We know that the price in the store is limiting sales some, but the numbers are so far down, that over supply look a long way away. 

The article "is" one of those hype pieces but based on some truth,  It is hard to see meat and beans tanking any time soon.  If the climate lets us rebuild the herds in the next ten years, they should have good underpinning strength.

Corn has that energy connection and when one industry -- or tightly owned and federally supported group of businesses -- are needing 40+ % of the crop, the largest corn crop in the world .................... Well corn is going to struggle with the fight to control the "projections" and the expectations of voters and consumers.

But when I reread it, even though it is a little too "rosey",  It still reads like demand is a strong component in the market and will be hard to hide ......... And that has got to make the producers and the investors feel pretty good about the markets.

I still like the volatility in the market.  Nothing is as sad as overproducing to a stagnent/ loan rate market.  Thought I had waisted my life for a few of those years.

[Palouser]

India is the worlds largest producer and consumer of milk. It neither exports or imports.

US =       90,865,000 MT of cows milk

India =    54,000,000 MT of cows milk

               66,000,000 MT of water buffalo milk

Total =   120,000,000 MT

India also produces 4,850,000 MT of goat milk.

[wrightcattle]

Globe's larggest export of grind beef.  that is water buffalo.

They are the globe's largest cattle herd....say 280 million head of mostly milking brahmers / zebu cattle.

New leadership there now....their economy is starting to really rock and roll so to speak.

;

[elcheapo]

Yes, consumer service and call centers are
booming there, try to get tech support
Nowadays that is based in USA.

Yes, things have gotten "somewhat better"
depending how you view it. Yes the
Poor have moved to the rural area....yes
They are better educated and yes are
Working in call centers.
The are now "advanced"..
Just like here..locked into low wages
Living paycheck to paycheck.
I remember one of my agecon Prof yelling
At the top of his lung "the first thing they
Want is a better diet"
If hamburger is 4+ a pound here, how
Much there?
If the beef industry thinks they are
Going to town....examine what McDonald's
Are doing there.,...do you think they have
Big Mac's?

If demand is so good....what happened
To the markets?

Sorry....already been to this horse and
Pony show,......several time

I wished it was try tho.

But I've been to quite a few marketing
Program that have been doom and
Gloom next couple years

[luisvieira]

I may remind some folks that the forecast about India is to 2026. Of course, predictions are harder to be precise if they take a longer-term perspective, but they are still valuable, I guess... And yes, most Indian don't eat beef because of cultural aspects, but the culture is changing as said....