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Markets hot news--Feb. 18

As Marketeye makes his way back to the USA, here's an update from the Des Moines office:


* Soybean futures are getting whacked on ideas that there is a demand shift to South America. Brazil could harvest a record crop, and Argentina's may have stabilized, sources say.  CBOT May soybeans drop 39c to $13.77 1/2 a bushel.


* Latest corn acres projection comes today from fertilizer producer CF Industries: Chief Executive Stephen Wilson forecasts that farmers will plant 92 million acres of corn this year, up from 88.2 million a year ago. The company expects corn to  top 90 million acres this year and that it will likely remain above that level through at least 2013. (Full story.)


 * Check out Marketeye's post from yesterday (click here), to read an interesting report from both Mike and Luana Gomes, a Brazilian agriculturalist, who explains the growth of the safrinha (second corn crop) planted by Brazilian farmers.


* Ray Jenkins continues to report on crop conditions down south as he makes his way back from far south Texas (click here).  Latest word from him: still very few signs of fieldwork in Texas and a plains wheat crop that appears to be struggling.


* Midwest direct hogs are expected to stay on the decline that began late last week with bids Friday seen from unchanged to $1/cwst lower. Processors have sufficient supplies through the first half of next week, say livestock dealers.


* Here's a look at corn basis bids for the day, overview from around the country: Click here.



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Senior Contributor

Re: Markets hot news--Feb. 18

        John, could you give us a weather update for harvest activity in Brazil for the long weekend.

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Re: Markets hot news--Feb. 18

T: Just talked with Harvey Freese, Freese-Notis Weather, and he sends this report:


There is no shortage of moisture anywhere in Brazil right now, which is great news for that part of the soybean crop that is in some critical stages of development as this weather is certainly adding yield potential.  That wet weather has created some concerns about the early soybean harvest. Most of the concerns that I have heard have centered around Parana, though that area has had about 48 hours of dry weather (after going about two weeks with daily rains). Rains will be quite common across Parana and nearby areas for today through next Friday to likely boost concerns about harvest problems again, with any real drying again in that again not likely until late next week.


There will be isolated to widely scattered rains across mainly far northern Rio Grande do Sul through Monday before all of that state has a solid rainfall threat for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Further north in Brazil there will be a daily threat of widely scattered thundershowers through Tuesday. 5-day rainfall totals on the order of 0.50-2.00" and locally heavier are forecast for northern Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, and far southern Mato Grosso. Heavier 2-4" rains are forecast for northern Mato Grosso. The rest of Brazil will see 0.25-1.00" rains in that period. . In the 6-10 day time frame, Rio Grande do Sul will have limited rains but areas further north will have a daily threat of rain throughout the 6-10 day period. Most of that rain for places like Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will be for Wednesday through Friday with those areas drying out by the following weekend.


-- John


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