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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

May 10 Pre-USDA Report Estimates

Here's a look at what the trade expects the USDA May Supply/Demand WASDE Reports estimates to say. The report will be released Tuesday at 11:00am CT:

 

U.S. Ending Stocks for 2015-16

 

Corn= 1.841 billion bushels

Soybeans= 426 million bushels

Wheat= 981 million

 

2016-17 Ending Stocks

Corn=2.294 billion bushels

Soybeans= 405 million bushels

Wheat= 997 million

-------------

U.S. 2016-17 Wheat Production

All Wheat= 1.981 million tons

---------------

2015/16 South America Production

Argentina soybeans= 55.73 million tons

Brazil soybeans= 99.42 million tons

 

Argentina corn= 27.64 mill. tons

Brazil corn= 80.46 mill. tons

--------------------

2015/16 Global Ending Stocks

Corn= 205.75 million tons

Soybeans= 76.28 mill. tons

Wheat= 239.77 mill. tons

 

2016/17 Global Ending Stocks

Corn= 211.56 mill. tons

Soybeans= 73.23 mill. tons

Wheat= 242.98 mill. tons

 

You're up. Take a stab. What do you think of these estimates? Too high, too low, right on.

 

Mike

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3 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: May 10 Pre-USDA Report Estimates

I'm  not going to predict what these numbers will be.  I'll only predict the trades's reaction to the numbers........no matter what the numbers really are.    And that prediction will be ............................lower.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope I'm wrong.    Smiley Wink

bkadds
Advisor

Re: May 10 Pre-USDA Report Estimates

RT--I agree. No matter what the "numbers" are the trade will spin the market lower. Once they think the crop is planted watch out below.
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: May 10 Pre-USDA Report Estimates

You're right that when the crop is planted, and that risk is eliminated, that risk premium will come out of the market.

I still haven't worked up enough nerve to sell much new crop corn, so suppose I'll get burned when the price drops.

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