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Senior Advisor

Re: In china

Remember also -- China was in discovery mode and/or essentially "hid" covid-19 for a month (or more) before reporting it to the rest of the world, so April is likely (at least) their 5th month into it.  We're a month, or more, behind them on the timeline, and our own timeline might also have started much earlier than assumed.  Actions we're now taking don't actually shorten the timeline, and possibly or likely lengthen it.  JMO  

And here's an interesting article --

https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0

Senior Advisor

Re: Herd immunity, great idea except.....

Herd immunity sounds like a great idea except in order to get herd immunity at 60% infected for 330 million people with 2% mortality you need to kill 4 million people.

  I'm not sure trump's going to get re-elected if he deliberately let's 4 million people die although he'll already have a good start the way he's going.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Blacksand, "already had it"?

"Already had it", I don't know where you live but I think it's highly unlikely you've already had it unless you've registered a significant uptick in suspicious deaths in your neighborhood.  Many people here, including myself, were sick with a mild flu this past couple of months, probably because many of us get a flu shot that only offers partial protection.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Herd immunity, great idea except.....

Obviously, none of us are "for" intentionally killing anyone.

Studies are now showing that the mortality rates have likely been grossly overstated, at least for the general population.  And the vast majority of the general population has not been tested, so we have no reliable idea of how many people now have covid-19 with little or no symptoms, nor do we know how many people have already had it and recovered, for the same reasons, and the fact that many might have already had it, but the actual virus hadn't yet been identified.  For these reasons, we need to prioritize antibody testing as soon as we can.

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Herd immunity, great idea except.....

Rick, almost half the positive cases don't show any symptoms and "healthy" people are not getting tested "here." The mortality rate is probably more like 0.5%. We seem to believe that our modern medicine is so much better than the last pandemic of 1918, but some doctors and scientist are looking at taking serum from recovering Covid-19 patients and giving it to sick patients. That technique came out of the last pandemic of 1918. I've heard some say this has never happened before. We must remember history, 675,000 Americans died of the Spanish flu, most of those deaths were 20 to 40 year olds. So far the flu has killed approximately 24,000 Americans this season and we haven't shut anything down because of it. 

Senior Advisor

Re: Run it's course in China? Not by a long shot.

Has coronavirus run its course in? Not by a long shot, they're already working to suppress the second round in both China and South Korea using rigorous testing & contact tracing. As long as a significant portion of the population hasn't been infected it will continue to be a problem. The only real answer is vaccination or therapeutic drugs. Do we ever really get the ordinary flu under control?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: May

@wrightcattle 

I thought you might be interested in this article...it is a synopsis on how the virus infects a human, etc.  Very informative as it syncs with much of the other data I have seen.

"This Is What COVID-19 Does To Your Body That Makes It So Deadly"

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/what-covid-19-does-your-body-makes-it-so-deadly

What I do find interesting is seeing so many super-elderly 90s/100-year-olds who have been infected with coronavirus and survive.  Several 100-year-olds who have survived coronavirus also survived the Spanish Flu.  If I were a scientist, those are the people I would be researching -- how did they survive being infected during both pandemics?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: May

@wrightcattle 

Here is a NYC ICU physician questioning whether COVID-19 is a ARDS/pneumonia-causing OR whether it is a viral disease that causes lung symptoms more resembling high-altitude oxygen deprivation.  Says he believes that ventilators may be necessary in some cases, but that HIGH-pressure ventilators are what is causing the damage to the lungs.

WHICH does correlate with the report that when people get to a point that they go on a ventilator due to COVID-19, a high percentage of them die.

...something to ponder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWR6zbK6ejU

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Senior Advisor

Re: May

Read something similar recently.  There's another product that helps, and many using it have avoided the ventilator.  Product has also been modified recently -- originally it needed to be hooked up to a ventilator to use, now it can be simply hooked up to the hospital oxygen supply line.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/patient-care-articles/helmet-based-ventilation-is-superio...