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Senior Advisor

Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

If you're looking for clues as to how this pandemic might play out, take my advice.  Don't listen to trump, listen to Fauci.  Fauci will send the right signals.

 For example, a couple of weeks ago, trump was pushing hydroxychloroquine hard, "what do you have to lose".  While Fauci, who had seen the data and understood what it said, repeatedly cautioned, "it's only anecdotal".

  Now, two weeks later and with 79 hydroxychloroquine trials underway around the world, nobody's talking about "hydroxychloroquine".

   Yesterday, Fauci reported that the preliminary results for remdesivir were favorable.  Fauci, "it proves that a drug can change the course of the disease."  He won't have said that unless he was hopeful.

   Meanwhile, the same day that trump says he's not renewing the mitigation measures and he's going to Arizona next week,  Fauci warns of the "inevitable second wave". 

   Listen to Fauci.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

As I told my wife, yes, I listen to Fauci.

But if you look at that study, which wasn’t placebo controlled, it reduced mortality among severe cases from 11 to 8 pct.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

My take is that Fauci is just trying to thread the needle.

He doesnt want to want to lose whatever influence he has over Pres Pine-Sol, which would be catastrophic.

So doing a little PR doesn’t hurt.

And it the first drug to show any promise.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

Watch the Dow...yeah yeah yeah it`s down 300 overnight, but look at the trajectory.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

Unemployment claims continue to hit the over, we're near 30M.

Woulda been nice to have not gotten on the 'rona highway but we're on it and its a long way to an exit.

BTW, since I've tried very hard not to give false information about this from the start- the UAB remdisavir study was placebo controlled.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

As I said elsewhere, the counterfactual question is, would a GOP Senate have given $3T of stimulus to support Pres. HRC in this situation?

Of course all counterfactuals have problems, and the problem with this is that we wouldn't be anywhere near 60K deaths or a near complete shutdown if she was President.

Because there was a playbook for this. And in a normal, functioning administration the concerns coming from multiple channels would have reached the policy action level by January.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Maybe a little good news, if you're looking for clues as to ....

So rich people are stupid?  Those pushing the Dow above 24,000 and not yet the "16,000" predicted a month ago, just have all this money they are throwing into the wind out of the goodness of their hearts?  With unemployment numbers and daily Covid death tallies and spiking deficits  and market hogs euthanized a Wall Streeter would have every excuse to go to cash right now and buy at 16,000 or 8,000 or November 4th after Biden wins.  But someone must think Trump will be re-elected and a viable Covid treatment is around the corner.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Why didn't the stock market go to 16,000, why is it bouncing around 24,000......

Why didn't the stock market go to 16,000, why is bouncing around 24,000, that's easy to understand.  The Fed has been shoveling money into the system with a grain scoop shovel.  None of these companies have had to actually take a real loss as of yet although it looks like Boeing might really be headed there.  As for the auto & airline industries, for example, they fully expect a bailout, as do several other sectors.  They're already talking about it. As for a lot of other companies, why do you think trump fired the CARES inspector general?  So as to be able to pilfer that $500 billion and sent it to those who support him.  Already, a half a dozen companies have been shamed into giving it back.  And they didn't give it back because trump told them to.

  Even the petroleum industry thinks they're going to get a bailout, although trump figured out how to get it passed Congress yet.  But he's working on it.  The rich people aren't stupid, they know they've already got the deck stacked in their favor.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Why didn't the stock market go to 16,000, why is it bouncing around 24,000......

I guess I can't blame folks who are on the gravy train-and particularly the serious farm gravy train for feeling threatened.

Even if the government comes through in the near term, the entire 40 year project to transfer all wealth upwards faces a serious threat as all the fault lines get stressed.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Why didn't the stock market go to 16,000, why is it bouncing around 24,000......

If you look at all the data with the little bit of serology info included it is probably fair to guess that 10x more have had the Rona and that mortality is like .6 pct.

But it also suggests we might be on a more or less permanent plateau, with maybe a slight downslope.

You hope that interventional therapies reduce mortality some in the intermediate term.

This isn’t anything that anyone is prepared for.