cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
ChaseOrstad
Frequent Contributor

Mid $13 Soybeans?

Soybean traders continue to monitor strong demand from US Gulf exporters and US domestic crushers.  Exporters are trying to bid up for bushels in order to fill the vessels that are starting to back up.

 

Remember, Brazil is close to sold-out and Argentine producers have what appears to be a death-grip on their remaining bushels. Elevators here in the US continue to offer unique DP arrangements in an effort to entice more soybean sales from producers. Soybean processors in Indiana and Illinois reportedly have little to no meal available into November.  Crushers are suffering from a lack of both new soybean supplies and rail cars.  

 

Margins are also heating up in China. Reports indicate China sold over 250,000 metric tons of soybeans from its state reserve auction, and demand was up from the previous auction two weeks ago. Since early-August China has auctioned off almost 2 million metric tons from their reserves.

 

Bottom-line, it looks like demand from China could start heating up, especially out in the Nov/Dec timeframe.  From a technical perspective $13.05 in the NOV13 contract still seems to be applying nearby resistance.

 

BIZ man Hurdle.jpg

 

However as each day passes I am becoming more and more optimistic that we can eventually overcome this hurdle and move into the $13.25-to-$13.50 range. Basis bids continue to look the strongest out West and weaker to the East.  

 

Courtesy of the Van Trump Report

0 Kudos
6 Replies
sd/pa
Frequent Contributor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?

Solid information. Your take is more long run. Thanks for the post.

0 Kudos
pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?

Not sure why you use the trem "remember" becuse Brazil isn't sold out. Check teh data.

??  Exporters are trying to bid up for bushels in order to fill the vessels that are starting to back up. "" it is an open market they can buy daily. This time of year as new crop comes in, exports pick up, because it is there. We grow moes bens than we use

and exports are critical.   

.  "Crushers are suffering from a lack of both new soybean supplies and rail cars.  " 

The crop is coming off the fields and teh crush is taking off- it has to, otherwise we sit on 3.3 B bu of beans.

You may be new, the US grows crops, harvests them  and export or cosumes  them. Annually.

 

The above has little to do with price it is a  process. Price is dominated this time of year by supply expecttions and realities.

Vs a very tight 12/13 which included rarioning, 13/14 lloks far less tight S&D wise. A less than trend crop, but

good areas are making up for teh poor to some degree. Net it is a bear market.

For participants here, vessels/rail cars are moving the crop, their role is market it.

SX is - 20 today

0 Kudos
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?

I'm not sure why it appears "the masses" are impressed with early bean yields (planted by 1st of Jun) - maybe 20% total US done & can't remember when China EXported soy....opportunity?

0 Kudos
crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?

Don, t we as growers usually harvest the best first
0 Kudos
Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?

I did just the opposite hugger.  When I started to harvest my milo crop I had one field that was deteriorating rapidly due to lodging.  At one time not all that long ago it would have gone 125+BPA, after I combined it, it averaged right at 80BPA and will probably (hopefully) be my worst field I have this year.  I decided to harvest it first so I wouldn't lose the entire field before I got to it.  Since then everything I've harvested has been 100BPA or above.  More than one way to develop and execute a harvest strategy.

0 Kudos
ChaseOrstad
Frequent Contributor

Re: Mid $13 Soybeans?


@pritchh wrote:

Not sure why you use the trem "remember" becuse Brazil isn't sold out. Check teh data.

??  Exporters are trying to bid up for bushels in order to fill the vessels that are starting to back up. "" it is an open market they can buy daily. This time of year as new crop comes in, exports pick up, because it is there. We grow moes bens than we use

and exports are critical.   

.  "Crushers are suffering from a lack of both new soybean supplies and rail cars.  " 

The crop is coming off the fields and teh crush is taking off- it has to, otherwise we sit on 3.3 B bu of beans.

You may be new, the US grows crops, harvests them  and export or cosumes  them. Annually.

 

The above has little to do with price it is a  process. Price is dominated this time of year by supply expecttions and realities.

Vs a very tight 12/13 which included rarioning, 13/14 lloks far less tight S&D wise. A less than trend crop, but

good areas are making up for teh poor to some degree. Net it is a bear market.

For participants here, vessels/rail cars are moving the crop, their role is market it.

SX is - 20 today

Nov 13 Soybeans hit $13.01 and a half Today

 

0 Kudos