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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

Here's the latest:

 

US: Frost and Freeze Advisories

 

 

Those scoffing at me all weak for bringing up the frost advisories and saying it wasn't so - well, it is so.  This is a large area of the Midwest, and in fields that are affected, it could be devasting.  Low lying areas could very well be killed either tonight or tomorrow night.  

 

The area moves East tomorrow night, and includes even more of the Midwest:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

Even if this nips just the tops of the soybean plant, it's a big deal because of the number of pods that develop on the top of the plants can easily add 5 bushels to a fields production.  We'll see what happens, but personally, for the beans, I think this is a real bad deal.  Corn may be able to tolerate most of this, but even there, low lying areas are going to be hit.

 

This is the map that shows what is going on in the fields - the dew point.  If the dew point drops below freezing - expect that frost will occur:

 

US: Current Dew Points

 

 

I will try and update this early tomorrow morning - good night.

 

Jen

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19 Replies
WCWISC
Veteran Contributor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

I'm at 36 degrees at 12:40 AM. It's gonna be a lot colder at 6 AM. Not good......
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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

31F 4:30AM SC MN

Soybeans all green as grass. Not good.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 31F 4:30AM SC MN

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

8 AM Temps

US: Current Dew Points

 

Sorry guys - I was hoping to get up earlier to do this.  No alarm, nice and cool down here with no A/C running - it felt good to sleep.

 

Jen

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IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

Thanks Jenny.  You nailed it.  We bottomed out at 37 last night which was 5 degrees colder than they had forecast.  No frost here that I could tell but had to be close,  I think tonight is supposed to be colder.  Really not sure how much it will hurt here if we get to frost or freeze levels.  It sure won't help.  The beans are all turning hard and starting to drop leaves and a lot of the corn is at blacklayer or a few days away.  We shall see.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

For the beans that are turning, I never worried too much about them getting frosted.  It's north of you Steve, where we had a lot of late planting, that I am really concerned with.  Cannon Falls, MN last night had dew points of right around 32 degrees almost all night, clear, calm.  Not good.  I suspect, like you said, that a lot of areas got colder than was forecast, and tonight, it moves East and a lot of acres could be in jeopardy.  And I think tonight could be a bit colder, and a larger area, than last night.  I got a feeling that much of MN and IA got touched last night.   We'll see more as guys check in this morning.  I was trying to get hold of my former neighbor in Central WI, but I couldn't get hold of him yet this morning.  Tonight is going to be crucial over there, as many of the crops just are not ready for any sort of frost, or freeze from what I understand.  

 

Jen

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JCCWIS
Senior Contributor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

Jen......Frost on the grass this morn....Wipers frose down on the car at 6:00 am when headed out for coffee. On way back corn leaves looked pretty black on some fields. Will take a day to see if damage happened. Sold my small corn crop by the acre last week so no worries with that. Can now concentrate my worries on the beans!!!!! lol

 

  John

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

How cold did you see it down to this morning, John?  I can't get hold of Roger.

 

Jen

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Midnight 9 - 13 Weather Update

Oh, and I want to bring this quote back up to the top so I have it ready for Monday morning's big gap down in the beans:

 

Come Monday beans will put in a nasty gap down when everyone seen frost was just hype. We will trade within today's range tomorrow. If Mondays gap down is a measuring gap we have 6.50-6.90 lows. We will need to see 8.30 support hold first. Don't need to spend 300 dollars subscription fees to see it either.

 

 

A smart marketer doesn't stare what could be a very devastating event in the Midwest, and try to talk more people into selling the market.  Oh, but Monday, it'll be I was just joking.  Yeah, right.  Whatever.

 

 

Jen

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