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Mike M2692830
Mike,
i'm a big picture economic kind of trader. the fundamentals have to make sense - supply/demand, etc
I like your last 2 posts about how this rain is probably affecting the balance sheet US and world.
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Re: Mike M2692830
Anyone who is convinced the CBOT has the futures for Dec corn undervalued should be buying callls, selling puts or buying futures. How much of any of that are any of you doing?
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Re: Mike M2692830
What would be the rational for doing that when you already own a growing crop, with crop insurance fall price option protection, as most purchase?
Does the term "Texas Hedging" mean anything?
Those that are not going to get the crop planted, and those that want to speculate may want to heed your advice, though.
Personally, I have my gambling bushels of 2012 corn and soybeans ready to let loose when the ethanol plant wants them for the $8 to $10 range, corn. My pitiful bean produce can be had for the $20 sum, delivered. Way better deal than buying those SA beans and paying to get them inland.
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Re: Mike M2692830
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Re: Mike M2692830
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Re: Mike M2692830
Based on reading Marketing Talk posts, one would assume that most are Texas Hedgers, a practice I always found the height of lunacy for a producer. I was doing a little nose twisting.
However, anyone who has new crop sold should indeed be giving some thought as to whether they want to maintain their position or get out of it. I should have done that last year and ended up with half a dozen loads of corn and a couple of loads of soybeans that I let slide along at lower prices because I was a deer in the headlights. I also missed the chance to sell at the high pre-harvest prices.
Your point that those with no crop in the ground may want to take an appropriate position is well taken.
I tend to be a seasonal kind of hedger and probably don't watch the markets closely enough to get in and out of the market iwth an appropriate hedge position. I tend to take a position and forget about it for months. Probably not the way to hedge these days.
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Re: Mike M2692830
it's good we have different parts of mkt participants on here even though we're really ALL on same side in a business sense.
directly after the stocks report, mkt action and $$$ flow spoke"capitulation" to me----wild, b/c no-one, strong hands included, could have forseen Apr-May weather, as you say, Mike.