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Missing from the Crop Progress Report

This last Crop Progress had no mention of corn silking. Last year's first report in July had 40% of Illinois corn silking and 17% overall.   The second report in July 2018 had 76% of Illinois corn silking with 37% nationwide.   By comparison, 2012 and 2013 had similar numbers to 2108.   This last Crop Progress had 11% or 1.1 million acres of Illinois corn not emerged.   If you run the numbers of states with 10% or more of corn not emerged, it comes to around 3.7 million acres(prevent plant?).   That would put silking in the last half of august for those acres, if not later.   Maybe that's why the USDA announced this week that they are going rework some of the numbers in the July 11 WASDE.   Personally, I can't see a 166BPA yield this year unless there are a lot of unharvested acres.   Just my two kernels.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Missing from the Crop Progress Report

Same thing on beans.  We have beans in SWMN that emerged when they should be starting reproduction(daylight shortening) can they be rated good to excellent?  I know there are some areas that are good, but the bad and way behind cover a lot of acres.

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Advisor

Re: Missing from the Crop Progress Report

I think on corn there will be say 40 million pretty Good Yield acres, say 20 million acres of 100 bpa kinda corn,  and say 20 million acres of silage kinda or 20 to 75 bu immature Wet corn. 

Beans? Be lucky if the USA harvests say 55 million acres of beans.... Avg yield maybe 35 bpa..

Esteemed Advisor

Re: Missing from the Crop Progress Report

 

We can always count on "RightCattle" to go off the bullish end of things Smiley Wink

Back in the real world, the genetics are just too good, and the farmers are too good, for that outcome. Sure, if we get a frost in mid-Sept you could be right, but that isn't assured, or even likely. Trust me, I want one badly to punish the lunacy of planting corn after 6/28 in Indiana which many  did instead of PP, but it isn't likely is all.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Missing from the Crop Progress Report

A cattle man has no other choice than to expect the worst for his feed supply this year.   And at this point a crop guy has to be optimistic.  Rain the last 5 days in sw Ks and temps 15+ degrees below normal.

a cool July and August will “trump” genetics as easily as a September frost. 

When the cattle guy hedges some corn needs by buying futures is the corn guy gonna sell this crop this early?  Betting on genetics and farmers?  

Odds favor the cowboy this time  imo

we’re needing near perfection to produce a fall grain crop now regardless of the “effort”. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Missing from the Crop Progress Report

The thing is SW, there are a lot of really good looking crops around the country. 57% G/E so I just think it is wise to keep a cool head about this. The crop in our county will be down 30% this year probably but we just live in the wrong spot this year (admittedly it is a 20 mil acre spot :-) but 20 out of 175 mil is not the end of the world. You say we need "near perfection". I disagree, we just need a solid average finish with a little extra heat in September to grow a average crop, say a 155/160.

Anyway, RightWrongCattle and a few others are really overstating things. Bottom line is that no one knows how this is going to work out. Like you, I have been saying since May 10th that there is no corn carryout, but that does not mean it has to be traded EVER in Chicago. Basis out here is 65 over, the trains are coming from the Dakotas (3 for mid August that I am aware of and probably 300 before it is over. The market does not have to trade reality anymore. Unlimited spec positions, a 2.5 bil bu spread trade in corn, no gov oversight, it really is disconnected which is clearly represented by a basis of 65 over when only takes 23 cents to rail the corn in from the delivery points in IL.

So, backyarditis gets the best of all of us. But, ALL OF US, includes those with good crops that think corn is going back under 3.50. That ain't happening this growing season. I disagree that a cool august will trump genetics, quite the contrary, not these corn genetics. They are growing 180 bu corn in Canada now for goodness sakes. Nope, corn loves cool. Beans hate it, they are a hot/wet crop. I find it much easier to anticipate some really bad bean yields. Say, 85 mil acres of beans @ 39, no carryover. 85 mil acres of corn at 160 has a zero carryover. 

Yield report, IN wheat from 25 to 50% below APH, which should surprise absolutely no one. It hates wet feet and constant rainfall at flowering. 

I'll agree the next 12 months should be good for the meat guys (cattle or otherwise).

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