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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Monday Night Opening

Don't get too bullish. doubt old crop highs get tested. anything over 6 on corn is a sale and over 13 on beans is a sale for new crop. this thing will roll over someday.

 

400mlbu corn demand has been lost on ethanol

400 on feed use

400 on exports

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Monday Night Opening

ok, heads up noted...thx.........i understand some decrease in total use, but how do you find feed #?

 

400 on feed use relative to what?

 

thx,

c-x-1

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

It's really hard to get too bullish these days.  There is...

It's really hard to get too bullish these days.  There is so much "the sky is falling"  stuff around it is keeping most folks weighted down.      

 

I really hope that my marketing adviser let's me know when I can become bullish again.      Smiley Wink

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Monday Night Opening

It's my opinion that the first thing a product er needs to know is their industry - and the nature of their industry in each of the.specific commodities produced. If that knowledge is lacking then I doubt very much an advisor will be a great benefit. For one reason the records of advisors isn't any better than the average of the market and maybe worse if my memory serves me correctly. Further, a superior performance is seldom repeated.

Seldom do I see a 'technical' observation that looks very far into the future not based completely on physical fundamentals. Or the assumption of what the physical fundamentals will be. And I seldom see more short term technical info that is critical for a longer term outlook, and even more seldom correct - as in what day to sell when I'm getting close to a sell target (covering bills for instance).

What I do.see is producers who don't know the top 5 producers and importers of their commodities and how much within a few million tons. Which of those has tariffs and taxes on the movements of those commodities and a running month to month projection of s/u ratios compared to the last 5 years.

Let me demonstrate this way. Who are the top 5 total food commodity producers and consumers on the globe? Write them on a piece of paper right now. What is their total production of commodities you grow (within 10 MMT)? Consumption? Write it down.

If you can't nail the top 3 in each catagory you don't know your business. Period. And you'll not even have the foggiest if an advisor is helping you until it's all over.

Use Wikipedia for an answer sheet. It's good enough. Guarantee you'll learn a bunch if you don't know some of this stuff. If you do you'll start to have a good overall reference to hang information on.
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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Monday Night Opening

Palouser,
the way you shed some light on things is awesome. Very practical. Too many want to think they have a crystal ball.
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BlackCattle
Frequent Contributor

Re: Monday Night Opening

Few more of you get bearish and I will go long... maybe out of sellers soon...
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