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Veteran Contributor

Monday report

Agrimoney.com has a great story about monday's report. Seems their will not be enough beans to go around. I would not be short going into monday.

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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Monday report

 

Grain prices have rallied to the upper end of the trading range that’s been in place since harvest last fall.

 

Less than expected quarterly stocks and solid demand has supported a 41 cent rally in corn.

 

Strong demand from the export and crush sectors has kept the outlook for old crop soybean stocks tight, supporting a 74 cent rally.

 

Short-covering by the funds who were holding a record short position and large declines in the winter wheat crop ratings have supported a 50 cent rally in wheat prices.

 

The rally in prices to the upper end of a trading range has likely factored-in much of the supportive news. A further rally from current prices will likely require fresh bullish news from the February crop report on Monday

 

 

 

 

Soybean Export Sales: YTD Total Commitments

soy.png

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Monday report

if I'm adding up the weeks correctly for export sales, NASS will have to account for the entire carryout (150), as i show the total export sales on Jan 30th = 152 million bushels over USDA projection in Jan 10th report.

 

no idea what they're gonna say - probably fudge domestic usage down and increase imports

 

big??? Will they be able to keep that ending stocks number above 100??

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Senior Advisor

Re: Monday report

With expectations built into the price run-up, what are the odds that Monday report will come in "bearish" relative to those expectations?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Monday report

True, but........

 

last 4 month range has been under the assumption ending was between 150-170, so it's difficult to say with a lot of confidence that all expectations are built in to this run up.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Monday report

feb guess.png

 

The first graph shows that the last few years exports flat lined starting about now through Sept.

 

They said we had 141 left last year. Probably going to have to up imports to maintain a pipeline #.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Monday report

Quote from C-X-1 --  Will they be able to keep that ending stocks number above 100??

 

LMAO CX -  your kidding -- right ? Look at last year - USDA drew the line in the sand at what ? 125 or so . This year they drew it in at 150 -  They may lower to 145 IF the bins are empty - lol

 

My best guess is the raise the imports a boat load to keep it close to that 150 mark and or raise the cancellations guess from China

 

Remeber the ECI Golden rule - Figures don't lie , BUT lairs can figure - lol

 

BTW -- Dang it - It is cold here !

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Monday report

ECIN every one knows that. However, if you need beans are going to say okay or will you buy nov beans. 13 beans 2 corn now what.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Monday report

llakmf - Your asking the wrong person on what to do .  If we are really short on beans - which I would have to agree with at this date , and need beans - I would probably have to buy some - What I wonder is will we see the basis kick in = higher as the summer go's on - If we do import a lot of beans they will be on the coast and not the  interior where most beans are used as in meal or oil , so then what ? SH is 13.26 and SX is 11.20 - the SH has a plus 20 on it here versus SX at minus .30

 

Funny thing - I was at the local Bunge ?? Maybe 3 weeks ago and  they told me they had enough beans bought to run them threw all of Feb. Without buying any more - but they are still at plus .20 sooner or later thoughts beans will run short around here , Trains come and go just about everyday - takes a lot of beans to feed a  plant - capable of processing 200 thousand a day - If they are still running as of 3 weeks ago they were around 175 to 180 a   day .

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Monday report

Hobby, thanks for range of estimates...so it's130 - low est. of ending bean stocks.

 

ECIN, ol buddy, this report is called an outlier -- now i know what yer thinking, " they be a lyin' alright"..But ya see i ain't be talkin' them outdoor-lying or indoor-lying or any kinda laying in the biblical sense neither.

 

im a sayin' there's a somethin' differ'nt ' bout this report that i can remember ever before. Now sw, please step in if you can remember, but i think even you've (now that's sayin' somethingSmiley Happy) verified that bean exports have never been this swift!

 

so ECIN, NASS has got some issues (on a magnitude of quantity) they maybe haven't seen before...you may think that they think they just can play shuffleboard with the numbers - but it's a little tougher, when they might have to borrow from other crop years, other crops, maybe even livestock.....looky at the balance sheet here. They been increasing feed, crush, exports, leaving imports alone....Buddy, to get 130 - we're talking 132 million bushels they are gonna have to pull out their arse......that's quite a few. Have they ever printed less exports than been committed -  remember that # currently = 1647. Jan printed 1495. ANOTHER Q FAR sw.

 

ScreenShot091.gif

 

i guess all yer sayin' at the end of the day - is NASS could just as well say, "OOPSY POOPSY, SORRY, DID WE SAY PRODUCTION WAS 3289 IN JAN?...WE MEANT 3439 --" Smiley Very Happy