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Honored Advisor

Monitary policy

Just maybe the last three years have taught us that the futures trade has much more to do with monitary policy than supply of crop and usage.  Maybe size of crop just doesn't matter and in a strong economy, the market can be beaten down by those who have the $$$$ to buy?????


point to topic --------------- basis trade the last 10 months compared to the CME futures.




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2 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Monitary policy

Absolute sw....we fixed basis on quite a few bushels back in Nov12 for new crop ship in Dec13. 10 under CZ. It was pretty easy to do if you ignored the last 2 years and just looked at 30 years of data. The way things look out this way, very doubtful it will be a big mistake.


Of course, I realize you were likely talking about old crop. It was easy to 70 over cn from the e plants out this way. That is alot better than when they rolled to 120 over CU. In this environment of unlimited money flows, they are just two different decisions, basis and the board.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Monitary policy

Like I said long time ago. Inflation play was gonna work till it didn't.  Well it is over (for now) 2nd half will begin right after midterm elections when dems crank up printing presses again  to ensure the victory of whoever they put up after Pres.Obama. 


This isn;t about acres or bushels now this is about dollars and cents.