More corn in the cards?

[John_Walter]

Marketeye reported today on the Informa prediction that corn plantings will rise in 2013 to 99.303 million acres, up from the company's December estimate of 99.03 million acres. Soybeans are seen at 78.777 million acres, down from the December estimate of 78.96 million.

Biggest corn increase is expected in the western Corn Belt--1.4 million acres over last year.  In the eastern Corn Belt, acreage is seen rising by only 50,000. The western Corn Belt is expected to plant 52.4 million acres of corn while the eastern Corn Belt is expected come in at 30.0 million acres, according to the Dow Jones Newswire report (full story).

Does this seem counter-intuitive? If the western Corn Belt is drier and as the drought threat certainly remains, wouldn't one want to think about more soybeans and perhaps even a little more wheat in the region? Drought tolerance, input costs, and rotational benefits all weigh in favor of soybeans, right? 

Thoughts? 

Thanks, 

John 

[docharing]

You are right John, current prices,  water situation and input prices all favor Soybeans, especially in the West!

[DKIL]

There may be more acres, but if these are marginal acres brought in, likely crp, in an already drought stricken region, just what yield are they going to predict?  Ave yield on 99 mil acres should not be high!

[timetippingpt]

Highly skeptical the eastern belt only plants 50k more acres. I'd guess closer to 1.5 mil more east of the Miss river.

[Faust100F]

At the Land Expo in DSM today, they are predicting continued drouth and hot weather in Iowa and Westward.  The drouth map shows expansion of the drouth area.  They predictied that Crops north of I-80 in Iowa would be reduced by 12% those South of I-80 would increase 2%.  May, June, July, August are to be very hot and dry.  Not much precip this winter.  But . . . on the bright side in Sept, Oct, Nov you will have great harvest weather . . . just like this year.   

it might be a great time to farm the federal crop insurance program again this year, because it is going to be much drier this year than it was last year.  The crop acres may be planted (but Misinforma is not the sharpest knife in the drawer) but 40% of it may not ever be harvested.  Be a good year to have the HPO!  

Right if you really believe these numbers and act on them, you are assuming risks that those who fleece the sheeple are not.  John

[Palouser]

Was wondering when someone would mention insurance. I'm not well versed but assume your winter wheat crop is a failure. What would soybeans be insured for after wheat - as DC? And if you go with corn? Just wondering.

[Shaggy98]

Some places DC can't be insured.  If wheat fails, why would soybeans grow?

[klondike54]

Corn yields prior to 2012 have outpaced soybean yields in Western Cornbelt for the last few years, making the crop insurance guarantee much better for corn than beans, especially with the harvest price option available in case of short crop/ high price scenario.  We are all well versed in growing corn after corn, and with price and insurance favoring corn, more acres will get planted.  Getting a good yield without LOTS of rain in the growing season will be much harder than getting the acres planted however.  In NW Iowa, we have virtually no moisture in the top 5 feet!

[Palouser]

There's something about a couple of inches of rain that make farmers itchy to get back out there and do their damnedest. optimism can be the same as delusion but if you don't have a crystal ball - how do you know for sure. Besides, the neighbor is out planting !!!!!!

[c-x-1]

So...following the $$........mis (delusional) OUT forma just might be under the covers with --- anyone,...anyone?