More corn +more soybean acres = less wheat acres?

[ray h.]

I have heard as much as 8-9 million more corn and soy acres coming from last years prevent plant. Also spring wheat seed being returned from the barn yard to the supplier. Have also understood that there has been some winter wheat being strip tilled for a better paying crop potential, could those acres be frost bitten or just a better potential with may some milo. How high would wheat have to be to hold its acres, maybe $2.00 higher than it was last week. Maybe 2022  will be the year for the wheat to push back! There still are a lot iffy wheat acres globally that are not yet a story to be told!

[BA Deere]

The eastern cornbelt claims they`re wet, perhaps that`s where the prevent plant acres come from this year, if there are any?  Gurus say this "high dollar" effects wheat more than C/B because the currencies that buy wheat are more heavily competing with the Dollar.

Weather for April in western belt in warm & dry and forecast for next 3 months (forecast worth what you paid). But if you have a halfway decent wheat crop do you tear it up in a potential drought to roll dice with row crops?  I think corn beans & wheat have a better than average chance of great prices, but again 'worth what you paid"   🙂

[k-289]

Crop  Insurance  return'$  could - will  be  the  deciding  factor , in  fringe  areas -  maybe ? 

[sdholloway56]

In the corn belt, at least, March is a great time to have a drought if you gotta have one. But it only takes one 6" rain to turn the spring into a mess.

But as it stands right now you'd have to guess considerably fewer than the high number of PP acres in several recent years.

If it plays that way, then it gets interesting. Drier spring conditions tend to increase the probability of both tails on the Bell curve- more potential for a dry year and reduced yields, but also greater potential for a super-boomer.