Oh, I'm still standing by my first forecast that I did several days ago. I never did believe the 5 inch + scenerio that the weather service had put out . I still stick by one 1 - 2 over the couse of the system for most folks in IN and OH - even for RT.
I look at other things than just the QPF. The position of the Jet Stream, how strong, upper air systems, how strong the surface low is and the fronts. Then how much was is/might be available, how fast fronts are moving, air mass temperatures, and their movement, sunspots of course, and all those things get rolled in together before I draw a conclusion as to what I think will happen.
Weather prediction long range, especially when you start to get specific 7 days away with where and how much, is tough. Because, guess what, you're still using weather predictions to come up with the conclusions. So then you also have to weight how good you think the projections are that you're going to base your 'best guess' off of. And the farther you go out, the tougher it is.
Jen
