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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Morning Weather Update

Well - here was my post from Monday of last week:

 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,531
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
 
0
 

RE: JEN

A quick and dirty look at the weather.

 

The gulf is open, allowing a fair amount of moisture into the ECB this coming weekend.  Also, the jet stream is favorable for thunderstorm development.  The clinker in the whole thing, though, is the low pressure system that comes through the ECB over this coming weekend is quite weak, at least right now.

 

Thursday, the 11th all the way through the following Monday, the 15th, is going to give chances for rain.  Heat, humidity, lifting action from both the Low pressure system and the jet stream, should combine to give a fair drink over the entire ECB.  How much? The 5-7 day pricip forecasts are showing more than 5 inches in much of OH.  I think that is a bit overly optimistic, although there could be some locally heavy amounts if you got under the right thunderstorm that stays on top of you.  I suspect that  1 - 2 inches is probably going to be the norm though.  It should make a dent in the severely dry areas of the ECB.  To put it another way, you would have to be extremely unlucky to not pick up any rain from this event in the ECB.  But this event is still days away.  I will try and look at it closer as the week goes on.

 

Overall, I think the weather service with the long range prognostications have done a good job this year.  Much better than a few years ago.  The talking heads on TV on the weekend - I don't know - I haven't watched them in quite a while.

 

Hope this helps....

 

Jen 

 

On Thursday - I posted this:

 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,531
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
 
 

MORNING WEATHER UPDATE

Morning All.  Almost 4 inches - the amount in my rain gauge this morning. Most of MN got a good drink last night.  That should finish us out here.  We don't need rain and our crop is made.

 

The Gulf right now is wide open, and funneling a lot of moisture into the Midwest.  The storms are firing along and in front of the jet stream.  There really isn't a lot of uplift coming from the small Low and trailing cold front that will go from Southern WI tonight and drapes to the SW across IA and down to W OK.

 

Forecast maps are showing what I see for rain, with one exception.  I think they have the area of forecast rainfall going a little to far South.   Here's the 5-7 day forecast map:160811Rain.gif

It looks like there will be a very sharp decline in rainfall south of the OH River Valley.  The above map shows the steep decline in rain, but, I wouldn't draw it that far south.  I see the heavier rain through Central IL, Central IN, and N OH.   Otherwise, the graphic is probably not too bad.  

 

The radar map here overnight was really interesting.  This wasn't the rainfall event from a typical front moving through - at 2 am when I got up to look at it, it was a widespread event that ended up covering a large part of MN.  Green with pop up thunderstorms scattered around the state, that were moving pretty slow.   That's what I expect to see as this system moves east.

 

Also, I don't think this will produce the rainfall as it moves East as it did here.  The Gulf starts to shut off as we go into Saturday, and that is going to limit the amount of precip available in the atmosphere.  I still see a lot of 1 and 2 inch amounts.  Maybe some localized heavy rain, but not along a defined corridor like it shows in the graphic.  The graphic is more indicative of strong cold front moving through and dumping it's load of water vapor.  This event, like I described above, will continue to be a broad range event, slow moving, and areas could pick up a lot of rain if you get under a cloud that dumps on you.

 

That's it for today guys.....I hope a cloud finds your farm.

 

Jen

 

 

 Then let's look at what happened the last seven days, rainfall wise:

 

 

usa weekly rainfall.gif

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4 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Morning Weather Update

So - it's grading time.  How did I do?

 

When I was doing this several times a week for you guys, I quit because of the amount of grief I got from some of the posters.

 

If you remember, I started doing it because I was PO at the talking heads on the Ag TV shows, that were not showing what I thought was going to happen with the rainfall.   This was during a very important upcoming week, where Iowa I believe needed rain.  It was fairly obvious to me that someone was trying to move the market.  And, with not formal schooling, and nothing more than the high school education that I have, felt I could do better.

 

Weather is a tough thing to predict.  Sometimes, when I was doing the report, and like the ones I did this week for you, you're relying on gut instinct.  Sometimes you're right, sometimes your wrong.  But, at least I don't have a reason (like attempting to manipulate the market - or farmers) to put something out contrary to what is probably going to happen.

 

I've said multiple times this year that I think the weather service and the long range forecasts have been pretty good.  Did they predict too much rain for this event?  Yes - but sometimes maybe they would rather have people prepared for the possibility of a worse case scenario - in this case flooding - that not be prepared at all.  It's a fine line the weather people walk.

 

But here's you chance....not many people on here put out something, and then come back and say, "Now, let's review the outcome."  

 

Next rain - for those of you in the Ohio Valley, your chances still continue over the next 3 days or so.  Simply instability from the jet stream, and the heating of the Earth combined with the amount of water vapor that is still in some supply over your area.  For the rest of us - there's not much out there.  Nothing that I can point a finger at, and say, "Yes - it's going to rain."  For the rest of us in the Midwest, it's the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm brought on by the midday heating.  Hit and miss sorta thing.

 

Having been gone a few days, it's catch up time here at home.  We picked 4 - 5 gallon pails of tomatoes this morning, some pickles, but they are winding down.  Still have sweet corn and the raspberries to pick.  And, we picked our first muskmelon of many, many that are on the vine.  All good stuff...

 

We picked up a lot of rain here the last week - not sure exactly where we ended but it was around 6 inches.

 

That's it for now - have a great week!

 

Jen

 

 

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Morning Weather Update

Yep that cloud found us : )  So far - since noon yesterday , were at 2.5 inch's - most has just been a nice rain - local WX is calling for up to 5 to 6 + inch's by Tuesday morning . Then a chance every day till next weekend .

 

BTW - Here At ECI boat rentals - were running a Sunday threw Weds deal on caneo's and jet ski's ! rent one for 2 hours and get the third hour FREE ! lol 

 

 

 

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rawhide
Advisor

Re: Morning Weather Update

so far about a half.- no need for boats-yet.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Morning Weather Update

 ECIN' s real name is .....

 

"Mr Hainie" (Green Acres fame)

 

Never miss an opportunity.. 😉

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