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Morning update
Grains did not sleep well last night, beans down 5+ corn down 2, and head lower. Basis is even uglier. Livestock fared much better. It is suprising meats can stay so well supported when in the last seven years income for the middle class as fallen 6.5%. Food stamps must make more of impact that I realize. Copper was down hard and oil fell back when the Dow decided not is all well in the world.
Local bids will soon print a 7 number for beans. That is ten bucks less than just a few years ago, gotta love all the risk out there. Ray will be able to write a book about all us with terrible marketing decisions.
Good news is, with NG at low levels, NH3 margins are able to hold on to what must be all time highs...well, good news if you produce NH3. Same for companies making bread and cereal...maybe the new corn and wheat price takes years to hit their books-sure didn't take that long when prices were rising.
Our grandparents thought they were blessed when they raised a good crop, knew they had enough food to feed the livestock, which meant enough food to feed the family. Now we have to feed the input guys, and the machinery guys, and our internet, cell phones, sat. T.V., health insurance that can be as more than a min. wage salary, and the list goes on. I wonder how far we have come, many families bought a farm and lived on it and paid for the farm in the 50's to 70's, no outside jobs, no rented ground. The toys are fun though. Of course, who would have wanted more acres if it meant sitting on an open tractor in the heat and cold with no auto steer.
***note*** I received no compensation for this update. But, I am hoping LG will decide they should sponsor me.
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Re: Morning update
My preference would be to write a book about the marketing successes of farmers
Unfortunately, anything involving the words "sell or hedge" get treated rather shabbily on ag sites most of the time
Oh, I know there are very good marketers out there
something to do in retirement, which is looming closer all the time
Ray J
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Re: Morning update
I know a Young Tiger farmer that`s up $20 grand at the casino and has a stack of 1099`s from the IRS for his winnings. He plays high stakes slots and watches what he calls the "progressives" I don`t know anything about high stakes slots and I do know farmers that got in over their head on hedging grain. When brokers giving their sales pitch and they say "..for this to work you`ll need a understanding banker when the margin calls come in..." I kinda head for the door and look more closely as this "high stakes slots" gimick 🙂
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Re: Morning update
Ray, should you need an example of how not to do it, I will volunteer!
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Re: Morning update
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Re: Morning update
I no longer go to marketing meetings. Got burned too many times. Also have yet to meet a banker that is "understanding" with margin calls. Plus I have enough trouble sleeping without thinking about those. I remember when I was a kid in the early 90's dad getting calls from Stuert-Peterson every few mornings and thought then it sounded like a bad idea, even to a 13 year old.
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Re: Morning update
The best investment advice of day...buy red ink. Did I miss a government report?
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Re: Morning update
I heard this saying on the radio as i was wondering why i was hedging grain. " The CBOT is run by professionals and financed by amature's" . I laughed, took my lumps and sold my puts and haven't been back since. All they want you to do is just keep rolling the options you never really cash them in.
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Re: Morning update
cornchild, the markets guy on wnax out of yankton always used to use that line.