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Senior Advisor

Mud and SDS

It sprinkled/showered 5 times on a day that was supposed to be sunny and dry. Currently raining a bit as I type.

One forecast has rain wed PM thru next mon

Went ahead and started soya

Leaving a cleat track but staying mostly on top, not ideal but I'm not sure ideal is an option this fall. Just glad we don't have a 55K boat anchor for a combine. All in all about what was expected after 4 inches of rain

SDS is very apparent on the yield monitor. Running thru beans that should be 60 plus and hovering around 30. Then get into non affected areas it runs into the 60-80 range. Too early to tell how much damage is done other than I can already tell we will not beat our 09 record, that shipped sailed after a few hours of running. At this point just hoping to get close.

Overall the first field was dry and dusty beans running 10-12 on moisture and cutting good. Next field was a bit damper with less dust and a tad more sap in the plants but beans still 11-13. Just wish the ground was drier. Definitely have the head tweaked to float just right

Markets appear to have had a good day. What does it mean, not sure it means much as we have a report this week, so who knows at this point. Beans are fairly balanced right now, and could move 1-1.5 either way in the short to intermediate term. Basis will have to do the rest

Corn, as slow as harvest is we have likely seen the low and could put close to a dollar back on by spring. Beyond that it's acres and weather and basis

So moral of the story. Be safe out there. Look for opportunities to get 14 soya sold if you haven't already. Also get a handle on 15 soya as i suspect acres will be big if corn/inputs don't start jiving. On the corn side, might as we'll let it ride if you can. Acres and weather could put some nice premium back in soon
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9 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

You say your beans are disappointing in spots but you recommend selling 14 beans on rallies, if I understand you correctly.  That must mean you figure the national bean harvest will be large even if there are spotty patches, if I read you right.  And you suggest considering putting on some positions in 15 beans.  That is mostly driven by low corn prices and high inputs?  Just an idle observation that soybean production used to be plant it, hit it with Roundup and combine it.  Now, soybeans is an increasingly management intensive operation and that directly points to higher input costs.  Seed treatments, seed costs, fungicides, pesticides, foliar feeding - one wonders if beans are an automatic cheap input crop or if one could low-ball corn inputs almost as effectively if input costs are the measure of which crop to plant.

Where do you see the dollar in corn coming from?

One question that arises for me is if we have a substantial corn harvest (record or not) and many farmers store for later mrketing, is there a danger that many farmers will need to pick up some cash in late winter-early spring and depress the market?  What is the alternative if one finds that happening, store even later into the year and run on borowed money?

Senior Contributor

Re: Mud and SDS

Here in west central, central IA we are facing our wettest  harvest since the early 70's.  Combines were getting  stuck, but the farmers are getting smarter now.  One guy drags a cable behind his combine for a quick "hookup" when he gets stuck.  Deere dealer installing a lot of rear drives and tracks on combines.  Lots of ruts, mud and un-cut field ponds or wet spots.  SDS spots, like your's.  Beans yielding  50's to 70's.  Corn yields 200 and a little more will catch most of them.  Tested my corn yesterday, 24%Smiley Sad  There is some mold in the corn.  Co-ops are known for blending corn, Il'l  be doing that in the field. 

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Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

Mild should disappear as you harvest and the threshing looses it off
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Senior Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

Jim. Everybody's operation is different so results my vary. FYI, I have 14 soya taken care of dating back to May

IMO 14 soy crop is overstated. But not a small one either. Thus my comments about 1-1.5 rally being possible. That however could get overshadowed if SA has a huge crop and NA blows acres out. I used the word "balanced" which means opportunities could be had especially with basis but don't get stupid waiting for $15

We were planning on a lot of wheat acres his fall. If we get the rain they are predicting this weekend that will put a nail in the coffin for us and many others. It's really hard to get 80-100 bushel wheat when it's mudded in late October. So we will go heavy beans if corn doesn't rally and inputs adjust

Again everyone is different but we can put a soy crop in at a little over 100/acre including fert, seed, herb. All no-till so quick and dirty. I know we are not the only ones thinking this. 15 soy will have downside risk without a weather or acres issue

If your running on borrowed money then your strategy is different than someone that's well funded.

Seriously looking at locking 15 production on wall to wall beans. Plant no corn and carry 14 corn crop for 1-2 years. And try for wheat next fall
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

Wind, are the corn yields above average or more normal for WCIA? Constant rain showers are making soybean harvest near impossible here in the eastern cornbelt. Tested some corn last week, 24% to 30%. Nobody seems to be in a big rush to harvest wet corn that is priced below cost of prodution here.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

Mizzou......I fully agree with the "two year approach" for corn.....but the trick is having the space to hold it for two years.....and I see you have a plan for that......

 

in fact, if you look at $3 cash corn as an "investment"......probably hard to find something with that kind of potential for the next 24 months....but you have to have the space to make it work...

 

congrats

 

Ray J

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Senior Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

I've got the space, but I'll need to keep looking for the means.
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Advisor

Re: Mud and SDS

 Here in the Great Black Swamp of nw Ohio we were drier than dry all July. Then 5" the 1st week of August.  September was pretty nice.  Now that it's harvest time we get 2 or 3 tenths about every day.  Less then 100 acres of beans cut within a 20 mile radius of me.  No corn.  1 1/2" rain in the last week.  This clay ground takes a while to dry out.  Doesn't look good for planting wheat.  The 15th is the cutoff day for my wheat planting.  After that you are really chancing it.

  On the other hand, the grass is sure nice and green.  No frost yet either.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Mud and SDS

By brother did an 80 that  made 217 dry.  If ideal weather  it should do 220 to 240.  We had a good start with the  corn, but  ended up too wet.  Yes, a little above average, very thankful.  

Just now, 32MPH winds, 34% humidity, and 66*.  Very good drying weather.

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