With respect to "drought & hail" & "abundant fresh water"

[rickgthf]

... about one out of every five years, here there's "way too much water". 

[rickgthf]

 ... over the past sixty years, there have been about 6x times when the price has fallen significantly following a big jump up and only two times, namely 2011 & 2012 when the following year was higher.

  It seems to me that the real question is, "what will the Brazilian soybean yield be next year".  This older chart doesn't reflect the actual 2021-2022 Brazil yield, but does show historical trends, and suggests that low yields are multi-year.

[sw363535]

Thanks Erik,   I totally forgot the negativity of Basis.... especially when it is high like now.  Down here in feeder country it is always high now and hard to get a bid for next fall.

We see it from two different perspectives Rick as you defined in water.   We have land owners (absentee) who want rent paid on the corn belt scale while their operating entity spends $180 an acre to provide 20" of water .  Because they see that 200 to 230 bushel yield.  And fortunately investors have the same disconnect.

Hope that chart isn't suggesting I need to forward contract more bushels than I can raise.

Anyway I am waiting for the day when Market to Market has a guest that breaks down strategy for marketing  and ever changing basis on a regional basis.  It is not a one size fits all answer.

There are areas that ignore very expensive risks by saying "It won't happen here"

[k-289]

If  supply  chains  are  struggling  here  for  inputs ,  would  S  America  be   exempt  from  that  situation ? -\

Which  in  turn  produces  what  kinds  of  yields  -  ????????   

[sw363535]

Guys the largest positive for markets I see this morning is exports...... we are still selling corn and beans.....

in this global environment I cannot believe the export trade has not stopped....... Does that tell us how dependent the world is on the few good grain producing locations...... Ukraine being one........?

[k-289]

$10  /  loaves  on  the  shelf  -  one  commentary  stated   -   maybe   ?