Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

My Valentine Day Crop Predictions

 Repost from 2-14-2016
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,430
Registered: ‎07-19-2010


Hi Guys...


I'm down here in Arizona for a bit yet.  But I had to speak up here.


We spent a few days in Oklahoma City last week.  I stayed in the park that I usually do, the one that was devastated by the tornado last May.  The park is recovering, and there were a few good things that came out of the devastation.  But the park is still struggling.  Some of the long term people have not come back, yet, and some of the oil people have moved on due to the low price of crude.  


One of the more remarkable things, was that for the first time in the 7 years that I have been in OKC, the reservoirs are full.  For the first time since 2008, when I first took the job in OKC, I actually saw sailboats on Lake Hefner.  During the last 8 years, they were lying in the mud at the bottom of the marina.  I have to wonder how many are still there.


Solar Max occurred a little over a year ago on this sunspot cycle, and over the next two years the sun will once again slowly go quiet, with fewer and fewer sunspots as we head for solar minimum 6 years or so from now.  


For myself, I do not see a lack of moisture over the US for the next growing season.  And even if we do, at this point, nearly all of the surface moisture issues have been eradicated over the last 6 months.  Personally, I see another good cropping year coming.  I know it's not what you guys want to hear, but it's what I see.  Real serious droughts usually start in the South Central US - TX, OK, KS, NM, WY.  Right now, everything is recharged.  Heat units should still be very good for the next 3 years anyway.  And - as far as record crops go, from what I see, it's all about heat units and moisture.  It looks like an early spring on the way, which is just going to make it that much tougher to have the prices go higher.


Before we left for OKC, I spoke with my banker friend.  Just before I got there he had a farmer in his office, trying to figure out how he was going to survive for another year.  He farmed 2500 acres in Minnesota, and my banker told him that to survive he needed to sell a farm or two.  That of course went over like a lead balloon.  And there will be more.  I'm glad I'm out.....and enjoying retirement........







I think I did OK.  Considering that I haven't paid as much attention to the weather as I used to, hopefully you guys got some use out of this post.  It's not perfect, but for a long range weather look months away from the cropping season, I'd say that I hit this one.  there are a few dry pockets out there.  And the heat may be taking the top end off of some of the crops south of me.  Here, it continues to be AWESOME.  We picked up another 1.5 inches in the last 4 days, including a small cell that developed basically right on top of us, moving slowly and dumped an inch.  I'll post some pictures in a few days - there is a soybean field I want you all to see that borders my property.



0 Kudos
1 Reply
Honored Advisor

Re: My Valentine Day Crop Predictions

Amazing how quickly things can change.


The Kansas governor gave a speach stating how the state projected it would take 30 years to get the reservoir system back to capacity and within 6 months they were letting water out of nearly every one.  drought from 2010 to 2014 then 2015 gave us 39 inches out where 20 inches is normal.



0 Kudos