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02-08-2018 01:27 PM
Nope, my biggest problem is me.
I understand that markets go up and down,
And could care less of Cheapo's ideas....that
If we look at sotastics, volume and comment
Of traders report, it will give you an idea
Where we will be going next month, and one
Could position oneself to gain some profit.
But here we go. With such tight margins, one
Does not want to be wrong...you can't afford
To be wrong. Fine, it looks like going one way
Is he way to go, but I've seen that situation
Go the opposite, and I can't afford that right
02-08-2018 02:04 PM
Here is what I have done when it seems every possible position could go wrong.
Try to position yourself that if something goes wrong, then something else goes right.
For example, if the market goes up somewhat, and you are thinking, should I sell or hold for more....
Sell a little.
Then if the market goes up, then at least you have some left.
If the market goes down, then at least you sold some.
In retrospect, you can always recognize that something good happened.
Maybe it is just a mindset, but that way of thinking helps bring peace of mind.
It is rare to hit home runs.
Just try to keep getting base hits.
02-08-2018 11:50 PM
I agree with you. Flat markets don't give one much of an opportunity to hedge at good prices, as you say, margins are tight.
Options involved money that in some cases is all the profit there is in the trade, so one is a little leery of options unless one is using them for insurance.
The drought fear in the Plains would make one leery of too much forward contracting.
Seasons would say start thinking of making sales, but one hopes we'll get a usual weather scare and prices might be better this spring or early summer. But if one is wrong on this and prices never go higher, waiting for a non-existent rally means one may never get a chance to hedge or lock in at any decent price.
These are tough marketing times.
02-12-2018 08:55 AM
thinking of changing my marketing plan..
In the past i have bought puts to protect the downside.. when i did this I held on to the cash corn waiting for a rally.
Last year the rally lasted like 4 days and i was left with 55% of my corn unpriced at harvest..
it seems this happens every year.. buy the puts they expire worthless just before a break in prices... (options expire one month before the traded month) so you buy more puts,, repeat.. stir repeat
this year I'm selling cash corn, and buying calls.. my base price is set and if the market rises it's easier to sell the calls in the money than waiting for the puts to pay out..
it seems that as the market rises the area markets widen the basis for the first dime or so and there you set ... market rally but nothing new in your pocket... on the board I don't have the basis to worry about...
Where is this thinking going wrong...