N Hemisphere - Late harvests & damage to crops

[Palouser]

I think this will be the theme for awhile. Canada, the US, Britain, Germany, China, France, Central Europe and maybe other areas are being affected by cold weather, rain and snow.

The results are expected to be frost damage for winter crops of varying degrees (reports confirm this already in various places) and the inability to plant in a timely manner - and probably late harvests. This invites increased risks. Obviously, if the trend continues it might mean lower quality and some lost crops in a place like Canada (they are expecting real planting problems already due to 150% percip and snow that will be flooding). But let's say that summer is normal and then it is just the risk  from a late harvest. Or let's say global warming means more extreme weather and a hot dry summer results - which would probably affect yields more if crops are planted late.

I think we are fast approaching higher risks this year as to outcome. I'm assuming some areas will correct themselves soon but also thinking that some areas will NOT correct, and might be a much higher proportion than average.

I guess I'm thinking I see a trend that is becoming established and bears watching. We've got no more than a month to get an idea of how severe it could be so it should start resolving soon it is going to. If not, then it will become a major marketing factor.

I'm thinking 'out loud.' I hate to say it but you heard it here first.

[c-x-1]

You are thinking so loudly that i heard a "knocking" sound on the wall here......seems like Peak Amplitude Weather continues to be the theme and plot.

Have you also read/heard of cold in Europe, etc. Palouser?

thanks,

c-x-1

[c-x-1]

Chi. wheat looks like it wants to go...............

[Palouser]

There are issues of cold and wet weather damaging and delaying crops in Europe. It's a matter of varying degrees, but it's there.

[c-x-1]

thank you

[Whitesand_Farms]

In my neck of the woods in western Canada we still have 4' of snow in the fields. It's not looking good with storm after storm and cold temps. in the forecast. I know personally I won't be seeding all my acres and I'm actually hoping we get another 2' of snow so I don't have to seed any acres collect my insurance and hope for a better year next year. We've had three straight years of mud wet cold and absolutely horrible yields and most people around here are tired of ripping equipment apart muddying in crops to lose money so it's a win win situation, I don't lose money I don't have to fix anything and I will only need a fraction of the overpriced inputs next year.

[Palouser]

Bottom line.  Stocks are tight if there are production problems of greater than normal magnitude this year.

[farmerguy89]

frost doesn't seem to move from latitude to latitude as you may think. it moves up and down too you know.. like in 2011, minnesota got hard hit by frost, while ontario was not.. I remember frost in 2009 on florida? it hurt test weight in ontario, not so much in minnesota? Anyways, corn was really sloppy and poor yielding/low test weight, beans/wheat good that year, this is all despite everyone doing real well in all states.

guys may be switching corn acres to bean acres already. I am **bleep** sure if things arent going to go well, that guys will plant into June again, as we had amazing yields in 2011 w/ poor planting dates (some even were done on June 40th-50th).

[Farmerjoe79]

40th and 50th?

[farmerguy89]

July is the cutoff for insurance here. But I guess some ppl r a lil less honest. So they decided not to acknowledge they were planting in July. Thus, they started adding more than 30 days to June so thAt they weren't planting in July. Just kind of a funny joke to me now. But a reality in 2011.

Ps we don't get penalized for late planting here, so ppl do whatever. But we have far less insurance options