NIA update

[north ia farmer]

Wow this has been a hellva spring.We could of did without  the frost  but  the last two weeks of warm weather has sure been great for this crop.As i said before get yourself ready for some good old LDP day's. If weather holds for the next three weeks look for soybeans to lose a $1 and corn .50 and then we play the wait and see game with July weather.If July weather holds look out thing s are going to get real ulgy.Things are great in NIA.

[kyu2852570]

corn futures are still over $4 for next spring when most will be emptying their grain bins from this crop so I think you have an awful long way to fall to get to LDPs.  Just isnt gonna happen with china buying,  get china to start buying more and a dry summer and you will really see some fireworks in the grains.  I got done planting the first week of may and its rained every other day since,  I think every kernal I planted has grown, and I missed the frost, corn and beans are really growing here.

[jrsiajdranch]

NorthIoway I did a little crop scouting this morning ( well Ok 8 cows got out and I chased them through the corn field)

Bmr corn all planted on the 28th all over ankle high pops where very good and very good color. I aint saying nothing about where the price will go just saying it looked good. JR

[67guy]

Gee.  Where have we heard this before?  Every year about this time things look great in NW Iowa and you predict LDP's come fall.  If you keep predicting something sooner or later you might be right.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  You are like a broken record.  Big crops in Iowa, demand suck, LDP's a sure bet, blah, blah blah.  Give it a rest.  Things are also off to a good start here but there is a long way to go before it hits the bin.  Demand has stablized and is even showing signs of improving.  I've been bearish corn for about nine months now but am starting to see some signs of life in this thing.  You are correct in that there is the potential for a very large corn crop.  I think in the end planted acreage could be staggering.  We'll see.  Even with improving demand I don't see this market running very far but I think there might be a little room for a bump up.  I really see this thing just treading water unitl late summer or early fall when more is known about the crop.  Like someone else mentioned we are range bound at this time and I don't really see anything to change it in the near future.

[Santiago]

same feeling, is just the start of the season, still has a long way to the END....sill see how much corn is to be offer.............but we are sure now about the demand of corn from china, on this part is going to be at least this demand (maybe more?)

[jrsiajdranch]

Hey guys I just wanted to say also that just cause it looks great now doesn't mean a good finish in 07 our crops looked great up until august then it turned off hot and dry and things went bad fast.

Also North getting a LDP this fall won't be so bad but having a lot of coen and only getting 2.25 will be a killer!  The LDP will give guys a chance to hold on but no LDP and selling for 1.00$ below COP willl cause great pain.

[p-oed Farmer]

It must be nice to live in an area that is always doing well north ......:~)..... I am glad that thing are going well..... Things are going OK here in central MI........ There will be some prevented plantings in the south-east corner as they are getting to much rain ........ but as what I have heard most is doing OK...... My big fear here is it getting back to the 90's in June...... Most of the time that happens here we have lower yields as our soils can not keep up with lots of heat early.... Lots of growing season ahead...... I would predict a $2.00 trading range ahead this summer....... p-oed 

[dekus]

i watched a documentary on China a few nights ago, 1.3 billion people i think it said. a tremendous culture of work 

ethic and efficiency. currently 300 million moving from rural to city, b/c that's where money and jobs are.

50% of concrete poured in the world last year was poured in China. it takes 17 power plants to provide power

for Shanghai, 20 million people. they need lots of corn and beans. it's hard to imagine how much food is 

consumed in that country. corn and bean production might be huge this year, but so is demand, don't think 

we'll see ldp, unless we want to give it away via the US treasury. not sure just where else they can buy corn.

[farmersaw]

You guys may want to check out the "new and improved" ldp rules.  If we ever get into that territory again, there will be some mighty p/oed farmers. 

[jrsiajdranch]

please explain enquiring minds want to know!JR