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north ia farmer
Frequent Contributor

NIA update

We are having some rain today not sure we need it all right now but I guess we better take it when we can get it.For the most part thinks look great.One thing i would have to say there isn't the corn Acres in NIA as in the past years.There are a few feilds with thin stands but over I would say we are on our way to flooding the streets of Woden again.It could get interesting come fall as to where we are going to put all these soybeans.I get a kick out of these guys that are so hard headed thinking 2014 soybeans will be $14 come fall and would never sell at $12 as they could of not long ago.If no weather problem this summer $3.75 corn and $9 soybeans.Looking great in NIA.  

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14 Replies
kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: NIA update

That sounds logical to me as well.  Although late planted corn may not be as productive but the market doesn't care much if they are dry bushels or wet bushels when it comes to totaling yield.

 

JUne first can produce a good crop of beans. The question is how many corn acres went to beans.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: NIA update

You sold up to your APH, Don?   Now a year from now, you don`t be saying about all the corn and beans in the bin that you`ve got at $6 and and $14 respectively   Smiley Happy

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: NIA update

No I didn't say that, but I will say if your waiting for much price improvement, it may be a fruitless exercise. I think I will just hang out at this point and see what develops.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re:Unlike most of you experts

I do not know what the future holds in commodity prices. I sure wouldn't advise anybody to trade commodities based on my opinion. However, that does not stop me from having an opinion. Most of the time I am certain that the american farmer will produce as much as conditions allow him to. If everyone was committed to production like the american farmer, it would be a far diiferent society. Farmers will produce more even if they know the results will be a lower price. There is no pride in a substandard crop.

 

Now the corn got planted some alittle later than normal but it will produce wet corn and you will spend a ton drying it. But the bushels will probably be there. Soybeans planted as late as june the first still have a good yield potential. Not that I predict a record crop but it will be good enough unless the drought worsens

 

Just because old beans are $14.50 does not mean that new crop beans will be $12 like the present bid. Anumber of years back old crop corn was $3.65 and i called two of my landlords to see if they wanted to contract new crop corn for $3,15. One elected to do so and the other could not sell $3.15 corn when the old crop corn was 50 cents higher.  Neither one had storage facilities and one ended up happy and the other not.

 

My uncle used to say that you have to sell it when they pay a good price. So that is the judgement one has to make. Sometimes right and sometimes wrong and sometime totally bone headed. So what I say today does not mean what I will do to day because it is merely a hunch. Merely a  perspective built solely on what I think today and it may well change tomorrow or next week. If you are really interested about when I sell something you need only ask. But first we need to market the balance of the 2012 crop before i get to excited about selling the 2014 crop

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Unlike most of you experts

Well, it comes down to if you`re comfortable signing on the dotted line to deliver bushels that you haven`t raised.  Some are confident to sell above their APH and farm in a 200 mile radius of their home base, have fancy toys and never lose a moment`s sleep.  Then there`s rich old farts that never sold a bushel they hadn`t raised, if grain gets  a price to their liking, they`ll have a bin or two somewhere with 3 year old beans to sell.  Both make it work, both are right and wrong sometimes.  But I do know when your name goes on the dotted line, the only way you`ll do any better than that price is if you go with options and with that it`ll chop you up like a cuisinart if you don`t know what you`re doing.

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KSKid501
Veteran Contributor

Re: NIA update

Just don't count your bushels before they're cut...

idalivered
Advisor

Re: NIA update

Seriously north iowa, I was under the impression that we are covered up with coc acres.At least thats what im seeing. We got too much rain where i live, but hopefully other farms don't have as much standing water. The crops were off to a nice start and at least we got them planted the first time in good shape. I'm strll holding old beans for $17, but my resolve is weakening. some new beans sold $12.50 hta. Woden is getting very low on beans. Trucks to fairmont chs every day. Big question is how much corn is still in the country??? Lots of guys delivered all out of the field to coops last fall to facilitate crop insurance claims.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Unlike most of you experts

If you lose mney on options, it's because you are on the wrong side. Most options lose because the options have a time value and that erodes over time. When the option expires the option loses all value. The option needs to be offset or exercised before it matures.

 

I've sold too early and too late but i have trained myself to dwell on the future rather than the past. A sale is history and if i sell $12 beans I don't much care about the ones I sold for $8 or $3. Like i can be satisfied with the farm I bought for $5k and not regret the one i didn't buy for $700. One bases decisions on circumstances at the time and you willbe right at times and wrong at times. Expecting a 100% success rate is a bit much to expect.

north ia farmer
Frequent Contributor

Re: NIA update

idalivered,dont get me started on the HTA thing as you HTA guys cost us big $$$$.I said not as much corn on corn planted in NIA.

Spoiler
 
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