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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

50% chance or higher of rain till June----might be June 7th before anymore planting occurs??

 

FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST
   MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN
   MAY 27   MAY 28   MAY 29   MAY 30   MAY 31   JUN 01   JUN 02

...WESTERN IOWA...
   SPENCER
   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   56/74    63/81    64/80    65/77    62/75    56/73    53/72
   100/90    70/30    60/40    50/70    60/50    30/20    10/20

   SIOUX CITY
   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   SUNNY
   62/78    64/84    65/83    66/78    62/77    56/75    54/75
    80/80    60/30    60/40    60/60    50/50    30/20    10/10

   CARROLL
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   60/76    64/82    66/81    66/77    64/77    59/76    56/73
    70/70    70/40    60/50    50/60    60/60    30/20    10/30

   ATLANTIC
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   62/77    65/83    67/81    67/77    65/77    59/77    56/75
    70/70    60/30    50/50    50/70    70/60    30/30    10/30

   SHENANDOAH
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   63/79    65/83    68/83    68/79    66/79    60/79    58/77
    70/80    50/30    50/40    50/70    70/60    40/20    20/20

...CENTRAL IOWA...
   MASON CITY
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   55/68    63/80    64/80    65/77    63/76    59/74    54/71
   100/90    70/40    60/50    40/60    70/60    50/30    10/20

   FORT DODGE
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   58/73    64/81    65/81    65/77    63/76    59/75    56/73
    80/80    70/40    60/50    50/60    70/60    40/30    10/20

   AMES
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   58/73    64/81    66/81    66/77    65/77    60/77    56/73
    70/70    70/40    50/50    40/60    70/60    50/30    10/30

   MARSHALLTOWN
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   57/70    64/80    65/81    66/77    64/77    61/76    56/72
    70/70    70/40    50/50    40/60    70/60    50/30    20/20

   DES MOINES
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   60/75    65/82    66/81    66/78    65/77    61/77    57/73
    60/60    70/40    50/40    40/60    70/60    50/30    10/20

   CRESTON
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   61/78    65/82    65/80    65/76    64/76    60/77    56/74
    60/70    60/30    50/40    40/60    70/60    50/30    20/20

   LAMONI
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   SUNNY
   62/76    65/83    66/80    66/76    65/77    61/76    58/74
    60/70    50/30    40/20    40/60    70/60    60/30    20/20

...EASTERN IOWA...
   DECORAH
   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   53/67    57/78    65/80    65/77    64/76    61/73    54/71
    70/70    70/50    60/50    40/60    70/60    60/30    20/30

   OELWEIN
   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   55/68    61/79    65/81    65/78    64/76    61/74    55/71
    70/80    70/50    50/50    30/70    70/60    60/30    20/30

   WATERLOO
   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   56/68    63/80    65/81    66/78    65/77    61/76    56/72
    70/70    70/50    50/50    40/60    70/60    60/30    20/20

   DUBUQUE
   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   54/69    54/79    65/82    66/79    65/77    62/76    57/73
    60/60    60/50    50/40    20/60    60/70    60/30    20/30

   CEDAR RAPIDS
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   57/72    63/80    65/83    66/78    65/78    62/76    57/73
    60/70    60/30    50/40    30/60    70/70    60/30    20/20

   IOWA CITY
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   58/73    64/80    66/85    67/80    66/80    63/78    59/74
    60/70    60/40    40/30    20/60    60/70    70/30    20/20

   QUAD CITIES
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   57/73    63/80    66/85    67/80    67/80    65/78    59/74
    70/70    60/40    40/20    10/50    60/60    70/40    20/20

   OTTUMWA
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   61/75    65/82    66/83    67/78    66/78    63/76    58/75
    60/70    50/30    40/30    30/60    60/60    60/30    20/10

   BURLINGTON
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY
   61/75    64/82    67/86    68/81    68/81    66/78    61/75
    50/60    40/30    20/10    20/50    50/60    70/40    20/10

   KEOKUK
   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   TSTRMS   MOCLDY   PTCLDY
   62/77    65/82    67/86    69/81    68/81    66/78    61/76
    50/70    40/30    20/10    20/50    50/60    70/40    30/10


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12 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

frank232,

 

the 7 inches from your map could become 10-14 before week's out.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

These forecasts are going to have to be very wrong here or according to Accuweather it will be June 20th before planting can occur.  If someone doubts me on the seriousness of this situation, go on I-35, go west on highway 9 and up highway 69 to Albert Lea, take all the back roads you want and see the unworked ground, field ponds, swollen drainage ditches, field erosion.  Early planted corn can look okay but there is slow/no emergence on slopes due to the satuated soils. There isn`t much planted in some neighborhoods. Here`s a KIMT forecast and story video you can watch http://www.kimt.com/category/weather/   

 

 

Here`s a local elevator radar and Bryce Anderson forecast http://www.farmersca.com/index.cfm?show=1&map=CityWeather      As I understand it after May each day in June 1% of the corn revenue is taken away until the 15th of June, then the crop insurance washes their hands of you, you either take prevent plant or go to beans.  

 

Here`s the wrinkle on that, alot of high priced rent was payed where ONLY corn will make it cashflow.  Alot of NH3 was applied last fall or sneaked in and not yet planted.  Some cases $80/acre in 28%N was sprayed, maybe with corn chemicals.

 

If a planter at some point can be drug across the field with seed corn in the hopper prior to the 15th, it will be done due to the crop insurance.  A guarantee of say $900 by far out weighs going to beans or PP.   This is exactly what I have always meant when I say "crop insurance incentivizes the maximum number of acres get planted", this year might not be the highest quality, but if 2 tractors hooked to a 6 row or whatever, the incentive is there if possible to have planter tracks by the 15th....but these forecasts are going to have to be wrong pretty quick. 

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

What a difference a few hundred miles can make.  Looks like almost the entire west half of the state of Kansas is under a wildfire warning today, low humidity (forecasted to drop as low as 4%), and high winds along with temperature of high 90's to low 100's.  Sure do wish we could combine a few of the soggy areas with Kansas weather a find a happy medium.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

These corn and soybean markets are certainly set up to explode higher.......It may take a few more weeks, but it's gonna happen.  Very little old crop supplies......almost ZERO early new crop supplies.......much lower total production later on to work with.

Oh yes, let's not forget what the bears are telling us.....record supplies still coming out of SA,  huge crop acreage is still gonna get planted, carryover supplies like we haven't seen for 4 or 5 years, USDA guys still saying all is well...........baloney.

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llakmf
Veteran Contributor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

I just do not know what to say. We went through the opposite of this a year ago. It just was miserable. I would think that BA deere has the best handle on it. I do not pleasure my making a buck on your misery. However when things look this bleak you have to adapt to the conditions as they are. Its possible the one who looses the least is the winner. The best to all of you,

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

I fully appreciate what you are saying llakmf.  If you have a good crop growing wonderful, just don`t sell to soon because all isn`t hunky dorry out here, there are alot of shoes to drop. There is alot of soil erosion and unplanted in this area and this is a very productive region. We wonder about if "the boys in Chicago see this" on US Farm Report couple weeks ago, a guest said that `60% of trades aren`t on the CBOT, they`re done all over..a guy on a laptop in Europe`  I haven`t been able to find confirmation of that, but if true people around the world need to see "this" ..it`s alot of people to have "backyarditis" Smiley Happy

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Faust100F
Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

BA- now you know rain makes grain!  Prices should crash through the floor Tuesday morning, if the CBOT nimrods see it raining in Ioway. LMAO!  It has been raining here all week, was about two days away from getting in the fields (those that were tiled out), but now it has been raining every other day about an inch each time, do not know how much it rained last night yet, it is still raining here in the rural backwater.  

 

Great forecast, I believe it will come to pass.   I wish I could agree that mudding crops in and compacting ground is the best way to go, but I have never done that and never will, you see . . . I have never rented ground . . . I own it.  I will not ruin ground for the next three years by mudding in a crop just for crop insurance.  

 

The way I see it the last day for soybeans in Iowa is June 15, and then a 1% reduction.  the last day for corn in in about three days.   So . . . when faced with a wet Spring or mudding in a crop, I will take the PP on corn and beans plus PT10 and leave the machinery sit in the shed, avoid the $185 a bag RR seed corn, and the $65 an acre treated beans.  

 

The way I see it, with the prevent plant payment plus the additional 10% plus the seed and chemical savings and fuel and repair savings, I am better off spending the Summer and Fall sitting in a fishing boat in Dakota or Canada and sitting out a crop year, rather than ruin future years by mudding in a crop.  

 

I think anyone trying to work saturated ground probably should not be farming that ground.   Adios Amigo. John

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

Hey Faust, the term "prevented plant" will enter many`s vocabulary this year.  I have 50 a of corn to plant and it`s in the boxes, I have enterprise units on the crop ins (cause I never have a claimSmiley Wink)  I`m thinking plant that 50 right up to the 10th if it`s fit with the 95-98 day in the planter....let the crop adjuster straighten it out in the fall.  It`s quite possible that with all lumped together that 50 acres of late planted wouldn`t trigger me a claim.  On the 10th it would still only be a 10% hit off my revenuue guarantee, only on that 50 of course if we get past the 15th then we move to "plan E".  If we get into the 20ish of June on beans it`s mid-30s for yield, although Dad once claimed to have planted beans along a cleaned ditch bank on the 4th July and they went 50bpa, I`ve never seen it though.

 

I think we`re headed for a diaster this yr, it sounds like you lucky birds that did get done planting will still have challenges with all this rain.  We have ponding, but like a old timer once said "never replant ponds, they`ll just flood again" and I`ve found when all said and done he was more right than wrong.

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Mike M2692830
Senior Contributor

Re: NOAA 7-day forecast - IA

Ba. One thing I did notice back in 91 and 93 is the ponds look smaller at harvest then now. I hate replanting ponds but there are times you do get back more than you put in. Can't wait for the open. We will see if cbot has had it's head in the bottle all weekend or if they have paid attention to floos news. How have you fared so far? Have small ponds that will go away if it would stop raining for more then 24 hours. Right now I could pee in a spot in a field and it would puddle up....MikeM
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