Veteran Contributor
Posts: 140
Registered: ‎07-04-2011

NOAA Spring flood outlook

Any thoughts on how this should influence marketing plans? Buy some July calls in case flooding occurs across a wide area and make sales on rallies if you are not affected by the floods?
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,308
Registered: ‎02-11-2013

Re: NOAA Spring flood outlook

Could be good idea, along with puts on beans.

But... Will the trade respond....or wait until fall
To see the real numbers and then play with them.
Do the "pushup" to build themselves this spring
And summer ?... And when built up, really go to
Town this fall when things may look a bit different.
Puts on beans...if alot of rain, herb and chem not
Down, could leave door open for alot of beans.
But here is the sad thing.....even if the piles have
Shrunk...I don't think end users will really go
To town to get supplies.. .with the farm economy
Down, if a buyer needed supplies, bidding 30 cents
More, will get him all he needs....while in the past
Maybe a 50 or 60 cent bid needed for same effect.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,559
Registered: ‎10-18-2016

Re: NOAA Spring flood outlook

Sell rallies, I'd say.  There is a lot of grain around and a good prospective crop even with the flooding.  Local basis will be volatile, no doubt.  The Board may not pay much attention.  It does make problems in other areas more intense as there will be a little tightening of supplies.  But I'm not expecting a big push up based just on the floods.