Traders that want to be like Wayne Gretzky and "skate to where the puck is going to be" might want to start poppin` tags for the 2022 crop year. What`s "hurting us" in north Iowa and west is we were dry starting a year ago and started the spring with a empty moisture tank (unusual) . We could all get hit next year and on to Elywnn`s "2025 big one"
So far 2021`s narrative is those of us that normally laugh at the drought weren`t equipped going into it and the light soil southern Iowa Illinois and Indiana guys been lucky getting the timely 5" rains to get them feeling 10 foot tall & bulletproof. This is both a supply & demand market (rare) unless we get recharge moisture (not in the cards) 2022 could be the midst of the big one. The Illinois guys wouldn`t be cocky had they missed a couple of their 4" rains.
And this year isn`t over, flash droughts can occur after July 4th, it ain`t in the bank yet. The video Hobbyfarmer shared the other day explained forecasts over 14 days are basically educated guesses and has been that way since the 1940s. I recall 1987 was a bearcat dry year for this area, but we were better prepared for the 1988 drought that so many recall as the "bad one"...limiting tillage, cutting population, selecting hybrids for drought ect
