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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

NY Fed GDP nowcast

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

Another week of sloppy data puts it at .4% for Q4, which we're halfway through.

Major indexes at record highs. BTW I don't know who runs this strategy but he's good- put out a "positive" trade statement on Thurs. night and ramp the futures into Freaky Friday. I'll pass on pointing out the context.

As long as people are making money in a phony game they'll play along. They're in no hurry to look under the hood of the fantasy.

3 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: NY Fed GDP nowcast

Something ain't quite right here.

If the real assessment was that a trade deal is imminent, ags would be strong.

So the strong stock market in the face of contined weak data isn't about an imminent trade deal- that's just waht the excuse sheets say.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re:That retirement money has to go someplace and with....

That retirement money has to go someplace and with interest rates this low, the only way to make any money is the stock market.   That and the fact that people in the upper brackets aren't paying as much in taxes so got a lot more to put away.

  At some point,  investors will begin to look at companies' quarterly reports and begin to wonder where the future returns will be.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Re:That retirement money has to go someplace and with....

Some folks pointing out that the stock market did very will during the Clinton impeachment.

True, although GDP was growing at 4% and personal income was growing well.

Currently it is growing at .4% and personal income is at the rate of inflation.

 

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