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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

Nearby corn closed at $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn can bounce back 10,15, or 20 cents this week given that only 35% of the corn is silking compared to the average 66% and last year's 78%?

At the very least, harvest for a significant portion of the crop will be a month late and significantly higher moisture.

The basis here in central NY went to +80 cents, what's that tell you?  It tells me that there's no corn between here and Iowa.

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7 Replies
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Cash corn

Costs a lot  more than the paper corn indicates. 

Everywhere cash is 40 to 70 cents higher than the board. 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

Remember the most recent grain shortage/price rise  ---2011-2012    and how long it was before the market was forced to recognize it in actual movement of price.  As I remember it was August of 12 before we saw solid bull market movement.

A full 14 months after the first poor crop in 2011 southern wheat.  Usda was out of touch longer than that.  Working on why the markets aren't doing what their supposed to.   that should be checked but as well as I can remember that is where it was.

We were shipping corn north by barge as it was being harvested in the south that fall and the "guru's" and usda were doing their big crop thing.

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sfrms
Contributor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

Are you serious? Corn basis in NW Indiana is 0 under Sep or +20 @ Ethanol plant. A lot of old crop corn is on hand.

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rrfarms24
Contributor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

65 over at the ethanol plant and local feed mill here in northwest Ohio and the feed mill is calling the whole neighborhood begging to buy new crop offering half your money up front I’ve heard... I didn’t get a single acre planted but what is around me looks tough to say the least huge holes and terrible stands for the most part...there are a couple good fields but all the guys that do have a good field know that it’s a gold mine and are in no hurry to lock in a price I wouldn’t be either 

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sfrms
Contributor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many prevent plant acres will there be in Ohio? 20 %, 40% In our area guys with elec drive planters, or oil drive planters  planted even though conditions would not allow ground drive planters to work. Most corn is 2-3 weeks late but is looking OK. some fields silking, but nearby some not for at least 2 weeks. Those are the ones I wonder about.

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rrfarms24
Contributor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

I can safely say less than 50 percent of my county is planted both crops included there has never been even close to this many empty acres around here I can leave town from my day job and drive 6 miles on a highway before u even see a field planted and 7 miles there are 2 fields and one of them is mine that is beans... I’ve been all the way through Michigan 2 times in two weeks and from my house to flint I haven’t saw a field that makes u say wow that looks good around Saginaw there are some good crops but that’s pretty sandy ground... corn is knee high or so here and pathetic and beans are 6 inches tall and shorter pretty sad to look at 

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Nearby corn is $4.23 yesterday, who wants to speculate if corn will bounce back?

I farm in southern MN about 20 to 40 miles from three different ethanol plants....two of the three are bidding for current corn through September at zero under Chicago right now when the norm would be 20 to 30 cents under. The third plant is not competitive with its bid but has a lot of corn coming in, mine included (most of mine was contracted for about $4 net over a year ago....maybe the other trucks are hauling in contracted corn too and the plant doesn't need a competitive bid.)

I made some additional sales a couple of weeks ago for $4.49 and $4.41 and would like at least $4.50 to sell any more....some of my crops look awesome, but there are a good number of prevented planted acres all around here, and lots of small corn....long time before some of it will tassel and I doubt that any ears will be something to write home about.

It would be nice to have a crystal ball as to when Jack Frost is going to visit us this fall...if it is late October, could be a lot of late planted corn adds bushels...if it is mid September, not so much.

Anyone that tells you what the market is going to do is just guessing. No one knows...not Curly, not Big Bob, not Mr. Know it all after the fact, etc. If they do help you with strategies to manage risk, good for them and for you. $4 should be the floor...ceiling might be $6 ….my two cents.

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