Need 'near perfect' planting

[John_Walter]

New report gives Rabobank's perspective on South America planting conditions and potential impact on the marketplace (full story).

Main point is that "corn and soybean futures prices don't accurately reflect production risks in South America, where planting has had a slow start."

The bank still sees record S.A. soybeans and Brazilian corn, but says if the big crops don't materialize, we're headed for new record-high prices.

Hoping to get further word from observers down south....

John

[Palouser]

I believe all that stands between now and a volatile buying spree for grain is S American production. It is certainly possible that S America will pull out their greatest crop of all time. But there are already dents in the situation from weather to logistical problems like the delivery of fetilizer to the interior. At this point it is merely probability as to what the outcome will be. My experience is that probability is seldom an accurate predictor of the outcome if it centers on the likelihood of a great crop outcome before it is mostly planted.

I'm hearing that southern Russia has not received enough rain for planting of winter wheat and that usually means Ukraine is also deficit for winter wheat that needs to develop to a certain point to survive a harsh winter. Feed prices are greatest around the Pacific Rim, where the demand is greatest and most urgent. That demand must be satisfied - and more - to change the supply/demand trends. And I'll guess there is more than a little question about the overall prospects for the drought hity areas on the Plains - and maybe even in parts of the corn belt. The pressure is on, make no mistake about that.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

It wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing regular imports of corn if it can be sourced.  Just enough to take the top off the market.  A boat load every so often would make a huge difference in top prices, it would seem to me.