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New 30 and 90 day maps


Not much comfort for either bulls or bears. Generally warm but nomal precip.



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Wither and Whether Weather

I looked into the El Nino to La Nina transition thing fairly extensively earlier this spring before I put my hedges on.  Thesmart guys were saying yes, it's coming, but the probability is it won't come early enough to affect this years gwing season.


 The last couple of weeks I'll admit I'm looking over my shoulder, wondering if the earlier calls are correct.  Are weather concerns overblown?  Will this all pass away and a "pretty good" crop (whatever that is) ensue?  Or will the La Nina come in earlier and harder than thought and drop the hammer on the bears?


It's going to be an interesting next 6 weeks.  More interesting than some years.

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Re: New 30 and 90 day maps

Makes me a little nervous- slight hints of the disasterous '91 campaign.


In that year, one of the major national yield contests showed July-Aug precip at all reporting SD plots at a minimum of 300% of any in IN. Although in fairness 300% of zippo doesn't have to be a lot.*


As I remind myself, barring extreme heat it only takes a couple timely rains to make a crop, so time will tell. And that sort of regional hiccup would move this market- not so in '91. And crop insurance is much better now. At this point with insurance and pricing this can't turn into a disaster unless I forget to turn in the paperwork.


But please remember to say thank you if we happen to be the ones who make a blood donation for the cause, and I'll do likewise should it flip the other way.


*That August I drove to Eastern SD and all the prairie potholes that had been blowing dust a couple years before were lakes. I personally believe that was the beginning of the favorable climatic shift for the far NW belt although I believe Elwynn has said it began around '86.


Egg and rotten tomato alert- that was a predicted effect of global warming.


That was a pretty tough decade for us weather-wise but fortunately things settled down and haven't really had a real bad crop since the late 90s, although some better than others.

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