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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

New Crop Corn

Fall corn seems pretty cheap with a barrel of oil over $100 and soybeans around $12.

 

I would expect $4.50 corn to be shortlived  and to quickly move up to $5.25 cash and more. Endusers that cannot make money by loading up on cheap corn have other problems going on.

 

WIth all the storage available around the cornbelt, you would think farmers would lock it up and wait for better prices.

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5 Replies
Kstater85
Veteran Contributor

Re: New Crop Corn

I know that all the producers are looking at USA production costs and concluding that new crop corn must be under priced.   The fact is that to a competitive destination (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan) new crop at these prices are $25/ton higher than our competitors.   China has been a buyer but they will not accept Ukrainian or Brazilian corn.   They can not recover our exports alone.   We will need to get competitive on export prices to Japan and South Korea in 2014 to generate enough demand to put a bottom in.  

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: New Crop Corn

I agree Red, like the old saying goes, sell a short crop and store a large crop. Being a young guy, I have more bills that need paid in the fall, so I will probably sell quite a bit off the combine. If all the bills get paid and we have some "fat" or extra corn that we can put into storage, I might think about storing some until January. The August report could be a game changer though. Im thinking we have 1-1.5 million unplanted corn acres, could lead to a 30 cent rally in new crop corn???? Maybe a frost scare in the fall???? Maybe.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: New Crop Corn

Getting competitive in price for exports doesn't necessarily mean that the US prices have to come down................................

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Kstater85
Veteran Contributor

Re: New Crop Corn

i agree we don't need to go down-  the other guys could come up.     The minute you see that USA won a competitive tender to Korea you need to be long corn.

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ehoff4187600
Frequent Contributor

Re: New Crop Corn

25 bucks a ton is .63 per bushel if my calcs are correct
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