New Crop corn is $7.18 tonight, within 50 cents of the nearby.

[rickgthf]

I guess somebody is still trying to buy corn acres.  Urea is $1200 per ton here vs. $360 last year, which makes nitrogen a $1.14 per bushel of corn.  I don't know if $7 minus basis is even enough when you add in the P2O5 & K2O.

[erikjohnson61y]

Since we had drought last year and who knows for this year, I am only fertilizing for 150 bushels despite a 170 APH. I have contracted some $6.50 new crop, so lets assume I can average that. Maybe optimistic, but hey.

Revenue: 150 x $6.50 = $975/acre

Seed = $70
Chemicals = $25
Fertilizer 200# Urea, 100# MAP, 170#Potash, + various micros = $307
Supplies & Repairs = $35
Fuel 5gal/acre x $4/gal = $20
Rent $150/Prop Tax $22 for owned ground
Equipment Overhead = $50

So that's $657 for rented ground and $529 for owned ground, or $318/acre profit on rented ground and $446/acre profit on owned ground. I think I can make that work!! Worst case is 170APH x $5.90 x 75% = $752/acre insurance revenue, and I'm still profitable.  

But, they can't buy acres from me. Chased the $$ and screwed up my rotations after 2012, not doing that this time. Gonna stick with my system and my rotations.

[rickgthf]

... but hey, go for it.

[BA Deere]

Democrats love planting beans.  😀

[erikjohnson61y]

Well, I used $1200/ton for all three of Urea, MAP, and Potash in my example. I don't know what the current prices are. I put the MAP and Potash down last fall at $910 and $800/ton. Contracted the Urea first week of January at $970/ton.  Filled my fuel tanks last December at $2.72/gal. Got the Liberty for my beans at $60/gal, 4.5# glyphosate for $26. All seemed expensive when I bought them, but glad I did.  

So I guess I'm an even bigger thief than you thought!! But not hard to plan ahead when you can see the gov is very serious about inflation - they're inflating the hell out of the money supply, and anyone with an ounce of economic sense knows what that means for prices. UP UP UP!!!!  Buy your inputs early, hold your production as long as possible (but remember seasonality).

[BA Deere]