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Advisor

New lows, new lows

Hope the crazies don't get you tonight but the sx contract keeps bleeding the bulls.
10 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: New lows, new lows

You've made your point, why must you keep tooting your own horn? If you ever want future credibility, you must end this nonsense now.

You VRbuck are also reaching new lows.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: New lows, new lows

I still think we have at least a dollar lower yet during harvest on beans. I pray corn goes to $2.75 or lower In october
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Veteran Contributor

Re: New lows, new lows

Keep it up vrbuck,  me and the rest of the people on here aren't going to forget this for a looonnnnnngggggggggg time.  Bulls aren't the only animals that bleed.  You should know that the  perma bear you are has been getting transfusions for the last 3 years.

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: New lows, new lows

These types of back and forth have been going on for as long as this site has been online and are one of the reasons this "marketing" section has never been what I had come here for originally. It really should be renamed the "crop in my area" section or sometime the "neener neener" section. Not that what the crop looks like in different posters back yard isn't interesting or somewhat helpful, but I think the biggest issue we as producers face is allowing our emotions or our hopes and fears get in the way of sound marketing. I know I did this year. Wheat was a disaster and though I made enough to cover contract s it wasn't by much. I got nervous about contracting any corn or milo because it didn't rain here until June 3rd and by that time priced had dropped enough I thought there was no way they could go any lower. I was wrong. How about discussing some marketing strategies from here on out? Mine is to buy some March calls and sell a lot across the scales. Basis is pretty good historically and I can avoid paying storage. If there is a rally because the crop is smaller than expected or demand really takes off I will capture part of it. About the only thing I can come up with at this point. That and contract some wheat for 2015 before it gets below $5.00!!
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Advisor

Re: New lows, new lows

Hey buck.
Does your mother call you Vince or Vincent when you're in trouble??
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Veteran Advisor

Re: New lows, new lows

Nutleg, I agree with your post. The strategy now is to try to identify how low the commodity prices can go, and plan accordingly. The old crop corn basis turned positive here in southern Mn, and I dumped my remaining semis of corn, and look to be a corn buyer at some point (Texas Hedging) and also store the physical for the long haul, if quality is there. THe one thing that will cure low prices, is low prices just like high prices finally cured high prices. You really don't want to ever store low quality crops, however, as low test weight crops are more apt to spoil in my experience.

 

It will take hog and cattle expansion, and this is going to take some time. I plan on doing my part by buying some cows if they ever come back down to an earthly level in cost.

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Senior Advisor

Re: New lows, new lows

IT sounds like you've given it some thought and have a plan.

Selling the cash on this year's crop is a challenge.  I have only a few loads already sold.  I wish I'd sold more.  For soybeans, there is a river market so between river close pricing and the dead cat bounce there is a chance to move most of the soybeans this fall.  Trying to make a quarter or half a dollar, perhaps.

With this year's corn, I'll start watching closer and will either sell the carry or store it and sell a few loads at a time with the idea of being cleaned out by July.  There are a number of corn markets here so it's possible to pick up the little bid differences and make a few cents that way.  Making the best of a bad situation.

Buying back on paper raises a question.  If one really believes the price will go up, then maybe it's better to hold the physical and sell it later.  If one needs the money or has no storage, and really believes the market will go up, buying futures lets you in for the  margin deposit.  Buying calls means an outlay of money that one will never get back, but there is no margin call.  Does a call mean one hopes the price will go up but is worried that it won't and wants to avoid margin calls?  According to the University of Mineesota, historically selling the cash and buy calls doesn't pay out.  Nevertheless, some time it works.

2015 bean prices look scary, so I've been selling some and putting up offers on others.  2015 corn is a watching game right now, probably will do something serious in the spring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: New lows, new lows

Yeah, emotion plays a role that we all should limit.  But no one likes the I told you so or a brager!!!!!!!

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Senior Advisor

Re: New lows, new lows

Milo into a livestock feed ration, there you've heard my marketing plan.

 

2015 wheat I believe has a guaranteed price of $6.30, nothing to astounding but we should be able to make that work.

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