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New lows, new lows
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Re: New lows, new lows
You VRbuck are also reaching new lows.
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Re: New lows, new lows
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Re: New lows, new lows
Keep it up vrbuck, me and the rest of the people on here aren't going to forget this for a looonnnnnngggggggggg time. Bulls aren't the only animals that bleed. You should know that the perma bear you are has been getting transfusions for the last 3 years.
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Re: New lows, new lows
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Re: New lows, new lows
Does your mother call you Vince or Vincent when you're in trouble??
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Re: New lows, new lows
Nutleg, I agree with your post. The strategy now is to try to identify how low the commodity prices can go, and plan accordingly. The old crop corn basis turned positive here in southern Mn, and I dumped my remaining semis of corn, and look to be a corn buyer at some point (Texas Hedging) and also store the physical for the long haul, if quality is there. THe one thing that will cure low prices, is low prices just like high prices finally cured high prices. You really don't want to ever store low quality crops, however, as low test weight crops are more apt to spoil in my experience.
It will take hog and cattle expansion, and this is going to take some time. I plan on doing my part by buying some cows if they ever come back down to an earthly level in cost.
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Re: New lows, new lows
IT sounds like you've given it some thought and have a plan.
Selling the cash on this year's crop is a challenge. I have only a few loads already sold. I wish I'd sold more. For soybeans, there is a river market so between river close pricing and the dead cat bounce there is a chance to move most of the soybeans this fall. Trying to make a quarter or half a dollar, perhaps.
With this year's corn, I'll start watching closer and will either sell the carry or store it and sell a few loads at a time with the idea of being cleaned out by July. There are a number of corn markets here so it's possible to pick up the little bid differences and make a few cents that way. Making the best of a bad situation.
Buying back on paper raises a question. If one really believes the price will go up, then maybe it's better to hold the physical and sell it later. If one needs the money or has no storage, and really believes the market will go up, buying futures lets you in for the margin deposit. Buying calls means an outlay of money that one will never get back, but there is no margin call. Does a call mean one hopes the price will go up but is worried that it won't and wants to avoid margin calls? According to the University of Mineesota, historically selling the cash and buy calls doesn't pay out. Nevertheless, some time it works.
2015 bean prices look scary, so I've been selling some and putting up offers on others. 2015 corn is a watching game right now, probably will do something serious in the spring.
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Re: New lows, new lows
Yeah, emotion plays a role that we all should limit. But no one likes the I told you so or a brager!!!!!!!
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Re: New lows, new lows
Milo into a livestock feed ration, there you've heard my marketing plan.
2015 wheat I believe has a guaranteed price of $6.30, nothing to astounding but we should be able to make that work.