Next Week

[marketeye]

Can we do it again next week? Corn finished the week up 20¢ this week, soybeans surged 60¢, and wheat exploded 90¢. Where is this market going? That's the question, what do you think? I'm told next week could be a repeat.

As the traders and analysts say the market is focusing on Argentine weather next week, Agriculture.com has an exclusive update on the South American crop-weather  and crop progress. Read the full story at http://tinyurl.com/25ueunb

Mike

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Hey, Mike. You still alive and got your head poked out of the snow over there in Chi-town?!

Sounds like the upward action in the wheat market is for good reason, maybe. Talked to some folks out in my old stomping grounds in Kansas and it sounds like the wheat's really hurting out there, some spots worse than others. A lot of fields have weak root systems, and boy, if that crop comes out of dormancy next spring with these kinds of roots, it could really spell trouble. But, at the same time, some folks are saying it's way too early to throw in the towel. Hey, there's a reason we grow wheat down there! Everything grown in Kansas is tough! Ha!

Anyway, here's a little more on the wheat situation. 

[Artifice]

Huge week on minimal news. My bearish composure was way off. Too much 1980 - 2000

bias, just wrong.

Q for HRS wheat belt people, when does snow coverage usually arrive?

October? November15? I see some worried about a lack of protective snow on Dec 2.

art

[johnaa]

 In the western high plains(great American desert), some years there is no snow cover, but it is good if there is some during late December through March, when artic air come down and the wind blows for days; winter kill=freeze drying.

  In NE Colorado there are not many good stands of wheat, most is spotty and thin to non-emerged.  A lot of no-till wheat hasn't even germinated, the best no-till drills could not even get seed to moisture in this area.  'Dusted in' leaving the fear it will germinate then fail to grow roots down to moisture and die.  The bright side is many areas do have good sub-moisture, if it survives.  According to the scientists at the USDA Akron Experiment Station tell me the wheat without fall tillering will not make a half yield.  

[Artifice]

Thanks for the input johnaa

If I am not mistaken we have had two yrs in a row above trend yield. How much acreage was planted, what % will be lost. High prices should have encouraged big planting – these are high times for wheat producers. The “great American desert” is the eco-clime needed to grow HRW wheat of course does.

It is only Dec 4, silly speculating this early,  for marketing purposes,  if we do 3 bu under trend in HRW where will that leave ending stocks in a 2011/2012 balance sheet. This market went from RED to GREEN in 2 days. $ move helps, trend funds reversal, [ we have these momentum traders we did not have 10-20 yrs ago ] I have not looked but expect large specs to be record long, may not show until next week’s #.

“what we buy into” if foreign importers get unnerved aand panic, I say more more grain, add to 2011 hedges. Economic function, help fill economic neediness, if they want it in this headline clime- here, take it.

Artifice

[soilsurvey]

Hi Mike.  It's certainly  possible for the move up here to continue.  I remember the same feeling in 2008 when the grains were taking off and thinking to myself who would have the guts to stand in front of that, especially if they didn't have the physical product to back up their position.  I'm starting to get the same feeling again in this time frame and market action.  With that  said I will attempt to keep my thought process in check and remember that you have to take advantage of good marketing opportunities that markets like these will offer.  Thank you for your information. 

[marketeye]

Soilsurvey,

Good thoughts. Thanks for your comments. As I'm watching the snow fall today (Sat.), in Chicago, I wonder how many farmers are thinking about how they are going to get their semi's backed up to the bin Monday. I'm like you, I would think this market is high enough to scrape some profit off the table. I just got off Skype with my South American contacts. They tell me that although the crop conditions look normal-to-above normal right now, rain is needed for southern Brazil and Argentina. The next two weeks will be critical, they say. In fact, instead of me telling you about it, I'll let them.

Take a look at their report, as of today at http://tinyurl.com/25ueunb