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09-24-2013 10:24 AM - edited 09-24-2013 03:02 PM
A projection released by Agritrend, a consultancy from Buenos Aires, says that the Argentinean corn area will shrink 7% in the 2013-2014 season to 10.1 million acres. A previous forecast from last week of Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture revealed that the corn area would shrink 6.6 percent.
Agritrend's prediction for the soybean area is 48.4 million acres - 1% higher than in this season. This confirms a major environment in South America that is currently much more favorable to grow soybeans than corn.
09-24-2013 04:49 PM
if you have time i imagine it would be helpful for several folks if you could confirm Arg/Brazil reserve stocks requirement and where the 2 countries quantitatively stand @ this point in their mktg yr....how much is left for them to conduct business each for corn and soya.
also, if you know what dates their mktg yr lies in......that would be great!!!!!!!!!!!!
09-25-2013 09:48 AM - edited 09-25-2013 09:52 AM
I'm still trying to nail down the marketing year calendar for Brazil and Argentina. Meanwhile, here are a few more thoughts on the supply/demand soybean picture for South America. This information comes via a market analyst contact of mine in Rosario, Argentina. When he uses the word export, he seems to be referring to the world export market.
In his own words:
"About Brazil, I only have good information about Mato Grosso. They have sold 96,8% of their 2012/13 soybean, I am not surprise with that figure taking into account how much soybean they have exported. I believe southern states are similar, so the world will look for US soybean now.
For 2013/14 IMEA estimates Mato Grosso production at 25,2 MMT, and 38,5% is sold. This time last year they had sold 61,4% of their 2012/13 production. This is not crazy taking into account Chicago prices last year (near 1750 cents).
Argentina is quite different. Farmers have sold 33,2 MMT of their 2012/13 production, that is 68% of total production. If you look other years, you will see that selling is quite slow. However export bought 9 MMT and I don’t think they will need much more if we start having new soybean in the US.
Farmers don’t want to sell soybeans because this was a very good year for corn and they financed with that. If you see corn sales, you will find that export have bought everything they can and at this point (record) and I am worried if we can manage with what is left for domestic feed. In Argentina we need between 6 and 7 MMT for domestic feed, and the rest can be exported. The problem (as it is in the US) is that it is impossible to calculate or estimate feed consumption.
Even if we had any corn left, we won’t sell any because we are not competitive. Brazilian corn is cheaper and we are seeing cheap corn in the US now.
Moreover, soybean is kept in farms because we are having middle term elections and everybody is expecting some big devaluation after that (27th October). I don’t think that will happen, but farmers do. Take into account that soybean here is in dollars but you receive pesos at the official exchange rate the day you sell it. So, if you keep it and there is some devaluation, you will see some gain.
However inflation rate is another problem and that is affecting 2013/4 season . Costs are higher (planting, harvesting,labour, etc.) and soybean is cheaper!"