Nice job Jenny!

[IllinoisSteve]

You pretty much nailed the forecast.  Yesterday's front passed in the manner you said it would and now forecasts for next week are starting mirror what you have been saying.  I don't know what your credentials are but you were spot on this time. 

[jennys_mn]

Thanks, I knew that what the talking heads were forecasting was wrong, which is why I kept saying that it would not happen. I didn't see anything like what they were saying, and I just had to vent somewhere;)

The credential thing as far as forecasting weather, I have none like I said. But sometimes experience and knowledge both as a farmer and as a pilot trump having a certificate. Getting a forecast that is accurate takes some time. I draw on numerous sources (not the ones the CBOT uses obviously) to derive at what I feel will happen. Maybe I just got lucky. But I've been doing this for myself for a long time. I just can't understand why someone that's doing it for a living would be that far off.

As farmers, we didn't learn to do most of what is required of us around the farm on a daily basis. One of the best welder s and overall general machinist is the custom combine friend of mine that I have referred to several times with wheat production. He's the best welder I've ever seen. Has no certificate on his wall to show the world. He shows it in the way that matters, by what he does. This is much the same. Except that I had the added benefit of teaching the material and seeing weathers effect on a broad scale as an air traffic controller.

I can tell you that our weather has changed. I think any farmer that has farmer for 25 or more years would agree with me. Some time ago, I posted a comment about how 5 - 7 years ago I started to see what looked liked these land hurricanes. Instead of a cold front emanating from a low pressure system, you would have bans of weather that would revolve around the low. Except these were in the Midwest. I haven't seen one of those since spring, and they tend to drop huge amounts of water over where they are spinning. My personal feeling is that is an indication of our atmosphere warming in general.

I read a post that somewhere someone was discrediting what I was writing. I just had to laugh at that. It's hard to discredit someone who tells you right out that they have no credentials. What I have is real life experience. On multiple levels. I may not have all the fancy words and jargon, but I know what weather systems do, how they perform and why, and generally have a good idea of what to expect water wise. This last week was easy. Next week looks pretty easy to predict what's ahead. After that who knows. Jen

[jennys_mn]

I really should proof my my posts this line should read - we didn't learn to do most of what is required of us around the farm on a daily basis by attending a university.

I made a mistake the other day too, when I said that I thought the people that I was referring to we're pretty. I read it later and got a chuckle out of it and let it pass. Not sure what I was actually going to say there, but that wasn't what I was trying to say. I'll try and proof a bit more.

Jen

[Shaggy98]

Jen, don't fix the typos unless they are insulting.  Sometimes the added humor makes the comment that much more entertaining.

[bullrider685114]

I second that!!! WC Indiana .50", came at right time later planted shallow rooted corn just starting to roll in 95 degree heat. Bulk of corn crop silking cooler weather is needed next week.

[elcheapo]

Don't know but in parts of north central ks
We got 2 to 3 inches this afternoon, but
Farm had .09

As for forecast. I talked with an upper
Management In NOAA. The said a couple
Of years now, alot of the forecasters were
Retiring, and the new kids out of college
Had no experience, and would be a couple
Of years until they got the feeling on how
To adjust things.

[jennys_mn]

Well, that could explain a few things. The issues I have been seeing have mainly been dealing with the extended forecasts and the rain totals. Maybe is because I have been concentrating on those mapping scenarios more. I just knew they were wrong. Unfortunately, we have a very sensitive market situation right now, and most of the trades out there have no reason to not believe what they see published, especially by something respected like NOAA is.

I still do think that some layoffs are part of this also. Your source may not have been able to say anything about that. I knows that working for the FAA, we were prohibited to say or comment on anything derogatory about the agency, it's policy's, procedures, etc, etc. (Good for me then that I Only have good things to say about the job I had. People I worked with and for, maybe not so much). Saying something that was demeaning to the agency could cost you your job. I suspect that NOAA is probably under the same sort of gag order.

The things I've been seeing though have been mainly in the last 6 - 8 weeks. Maybe on top of everything else, people are on vacation. But for what ever reason, I think the computers are being allowed to do more of the work.

Anyway, just got done doing a quick review of the afternoon maps. That's probably it for the rain folks. There still is nothing out there indicating a front that gives a drink to a large swath of the corn and SB belt. The jet stream is finally sagging a bit south of the Canadian border, which is bringing in the cooler temps. With the drop I temps and humidities, will also come a drop in the afternoon pop up showers. It's always strange to me how we can drop temperatures 20 - 25 degrees on frontal passage, and not get some big thunderstorms. We simply did not have enough instability in the Atmosphere, and the upper levels of the atmosphere were to warm to condense out a large amount of the moisture that was present. To get big thunderstorms and abundant rain out of these systems, the surface air mass needed to be lifted above 50,000 ft. And that doesn't happen all that often in the Midwest.

Jen