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Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,464
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

$70,000 pickups  That's NO S--t ! Last winter I was trading trucks - I had a 350 SUPER Duty - the one I was looking at was 73 grand ! I traded for a 150 - that's all the kitty would take - Next step will be a horse - Maybe !

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Gasoline products jumped 20+ cents yesterday because of potential shortages, still can buy all you need or want. 

 

Must be nice to price gouge like that.

 

Would be nice to do like the grocers and raise our prices because of higher inputs.  

 

This isn't spin either.

Advisor
Posts: 1,027
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

I'm sorry, Pete meijer is full of horse manure with his increasing technology and technology treadmill. It is called an increasing trend line yield. Yield increases a bushel a year in corn based on improved technology, genetics, tile, fungicide, etc. it is the reason usda comes out with a 170 yield in march. It is constant and consistent. The only variable not consistent is weather and disease. Crop conditions ratings are the most accurate way to measure weather and yield. If we have high conditions rating that is the reason we hear big record crops. This year is different because we are being told to ignore conditions ratings. It has worked since 1985. We can track what percent we are off trend by similar years based on conditions ratings. I was upset when Pete meijer told us to ignore conditions ratings because the new genetics make it irrelevant. Sorry sunshine, you are double dipping into trend yield to justify an endusers glory of cheap corn. You can't start with current trends and say the corn is better then ten years ago and can handle stress better, because it is built into 170 trend yields. Sorry for the rant but old chippy is even more full of it claiming the second highest national yield with the lowest pod count since 2012.
Advisor
Posts: 1,027
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

I had to argue with mizzou tiger the perms bullover his peak cork blunder back in 2012 and how irrelevant it is with it expanding Bushel a year. Now I have to school an end user that doesn't understand trend line yields when the are double dipping into today's genetics.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,055
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

VR, I always thought that 1bu improvement was due to seed genetic alone, the "Aquamax" and Genuity" and such.  Every year more tile is laid, I swear they have to be laying tile on top of tile in places  Smiley Happy But that and the lack of bad farmers these days, this high opening ante into the sport has weeded out the novices, more every year. 

 

So, we have only "professionals" these days smart, over-powered with machinery, they all spent the winter at Hefty brother`s seminars, just swinging for the bleachers on yield, even if it doesn`t economically pay.  I confess I don`t pay much attention to ratings early in the season, because it`s gonna look good, it`s like a 20 something that was partying all night and in the morning still looking like a well rested 40yr old...the 40yr old tries it and looks like a hagered 60yr old.  In this area, I looked at crops from the roads and all the challenges it had, it sure looked good.   I remember in the past, those cold, wet planting conditions the crop would`ve been yellow and stunted, but this summer it held the green color, some say plants were "short, corn and beans"  but I think that`s the breeding to prevent lodging and put more energy in the plant.

 

This time of the year the yellow and stunted is showing up in deficient spots.  But you look at a 500 acre farmer in the past he`d have a 8 row IH Cyclo planter that would drop 3 kernels here and 2 over there.  Today if the farm stayed 500 acres the farmer has a 12 row White planter, more timely and picket fence stands and he knows the difference between "P" and "K"  fertilizer. ..he even applies S and Z and Manganese, variable rate and his yield monitor uploads to the cloud on the exact yield improvement so he can text the results to the Hefty boys who tell him what to do next year.  

 

But this year, we see some of us going back to conventional seed, reassessing micro nutrients, not applying fungicide...kind of going backwards actually, but despite that cutting inputs, we still see go or in the case of last year record by 20 bushel bean yields and in 2015 record on the farm corn yields, by having cut inputs....global warming?   Smiley Happy

 

With Chip`s lower pod counts and divining 2nd highest bean yield, just to defend him a little, he will tell you that it`s a snap shot on August 25th, no more, no less.  They count 1/4" pods, assuming a decent finish to the season and getting 2 beans or whatever in each 1/4" pod.   Well, on August 25th if they didn`t assume those pods would fill, the yield estimate would be artificially low...well if you`re sitting on a bin of old crop, perhaps that would be alright to get a price boost temporarily, however it`s catch up on the new crop and crying wolf too many times would nullify the whole thing. 

 

I don`t know if the carryover is really 2.3 billion or if it`s actually 1 billion, but I do know we don`t run out and on a rally, the trucks are lined up.   So hate em or dislike em, USDA and these crop tours have a track record and it`s all we got.  Looking in my own backyard, I can honestly say "Yes, it is quite possible I will yield what Pro Farmer says of 180 corn and 50 beans".

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 905
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

I spent 25 years buying corn in carryouts from 400 myn to 2.5 byn

 

this is NOT a 1 byn bushel carryout by a long, long ways

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,055
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

I agree Ray, but the carryover could be 1.999 billion and they should be paying $3.50 cash instead of <$3   Smiley Happy   But yeah, there`s a elevator that moved corn to a tarped bunker exactly a year ago, so that was 2015 corn and it hasn`t been touched, the elevator would love to sell it, but it`s farmers holding it.  Now if they don`t sell it by Sept 1, they`ll probably have $2 corn when they finally sell after all this storage.  They could`ve sold it off the combine in 2015 for $3.40, they could`ve sold it a year ago for the same price it is today, they had a few chances of selling it for $3.95 over the past 2yrs, and this is the USDA`s fault?  Lord knows, I don`t think much of the cheap food policy, but until it changes, this is the game and this is the rules. 

 

But if one looks at their reported to crop insurance yields over the last 5 or 10 years and compare them to what the USDA says they got, I think they`d be pretty pleased that USDA and Pro Farmer wasn`t harder on us.   I hate to say it, I wish we could all stick our heads out the window and scream "I`m mad as hell and I`m not gonna take it anymore!" and corn would go to $4.50 and $10.50 beans, but I`m sorry it doesn`t work that way, I think they`re at least half right and that`s a heck of a lot of corn.

Advisor
Posts: 1,027
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Again the best correlation to find yield before harvest has always been conditions ratings. This year had the second lowest rating the past ten years, next to 2012. The improvements are not only from seed improvements but from better practices. The formula is simple take ratings from other years and figure the percentage off trend or above based on ratings. It isn't 169!or 167. The reason most professionals refuse to drop below 166-165 is because we reach carryouts at or below 1.5. Our built in demand makes the market get excited below that number. It once was 1 billion before ethanol.
Advisor
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Ray, carryout is big no doubt.  2017 crop size is still up for debate, probably will be even after harvest.  Crop looks to be heading for a later harvest with a cooler weather Aug/Sept.  Thinking that will help making finding a home for new crop easier.  If the bean crop is big, that always takes away from corn storage, if small just the opposite. So beans will set the tone I am thinking. I don't have a clue how to predict a bean yield, we did catch five inches of rain the middle of August that should make a big difference on the beans-finally have to mow yard again. How much do you expect SE Iowa to be down on yield compared to last year?

Take a drought any day over the water deluge in TX. Pretty amazing stories of American's helping each other and not waiting for someone else to do it if it needs to be done.  Months/years of struggles ahead for many. Still waiting for PETA to show up and help all those animals......or the Animal Humane Society--that give next to nothing to actually helping animals in need.

Advisor
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎06-03-2010

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

ECIN, I saw an ad for a 350 with a list price of over $90,000, but they had $10,000 is discounts to lower the price.  But, I am sure you can get a nice payment plan with zero percent interest.     Of course, I remember the 80's buying equipment with 13% interest--ugly too.