No bullish news, so market goes down?

[Palouser]

Let's admit that the terms 'battle', 'war' and 'loser' are pretty extreme terms for grain marketing. I do think that there is some usefulness in the analogy.

A good commander does research and depends on an extensive intelligence network preparing for the field. Guessing about an unknown adversary is irresponsible. Knowing the terrain and the habits of the opposition are invaluable. Like reality, few 'battles' are absolutely decisive. They are almost always compromises. Some outcomes increase your relative strength, some don't. The object is to oncrease your relative strength. Doing so gives you more options later. The weaker you are the less options you're likely to have.

One reason I can be an opportunist is because debt levels are low, I farm in a relatively low risk environment compared to some, and I can be patient. Exposure that some couldn't risk I can and will, if I think there is the liklihood of opportunities in the future based on information and habits informed by past experience. I never risk it all and almost always have a back up strategy and can remain flexible. Never back yourself into a corner with cash flow.

[vrbuck]

What battle?  What war?  You could have got six dollar corn.  To many farmers had seven, or eight dollars in their head to sell.  You know every year or every bull run there are people that don't sell no matter what the price.  They usually miss the highs and sell the lows.  Somethime one in the hand is better then two in the bush.

[Palouser]

There may be people who won't sell the highs and wind up selling the lows, but I have no evidence that is a typical reaction of those waiting to see the highs. I think it may be a generalization that helps those who must rationalize selling 'early' before the real highs are in. I, for one have no problem selling on the back side as a marketing strategy. '07-08 I sold some wheat at $12+ (our market went to $15+) and the rest on the back side of the high, but still $2 - $5 higher than when most bailed on the front side and then started saying that it couldn't go much higher.

Hitting the absolute high is almost impossible, but getting into that territory is a worthwhile exercise. Trying to drop it all at one time probably introduces more risk, but I think it depends a lot on experience. I think a market like the present one is significantly different in character than 07-08, so far. There are always what ifs, and a farmer really needs to take a look at what exposure is reasonable given the status and maturity of their operation.

[nwobcw]

  Local cash beans reached 13.52 3 days since harvest.  The most recent last week.  I talked to the grain buyer at the elevator today discussing this.  He said the funds are repositioning themselves.  Sold 1/3 of the rest of my beans for 13.18 and another 5% of new crop for 12.18.  When they hit the 13.52  mark the 3rd time and didn't move past it it pretty much confirmed my thoughts of the market being very similar to last year. 

[oncearound]

we have fought and won many battles of Top Calling's and other bearish minded dribble since the 1st week of Jan on here men! yet, the war is not over but we are clearly overrunning the positions of the bears.

in the coming weeks/months? how high can old crop corn contracts run???? should we look to wheat's 08 run, or the recent cotton action? 

"to the victor belong the spoils".........much deserved to those of us whom have braved the associated risks, name calling and stuck to our guns riding this bull through all it's turns & twists :-)))